Match Info

WSL 2 - Round 12

Date: 20 February 2026, Friday

Location: Maiden Castle (Durham)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	WSL 2


	Durham		Sunderland

	1	X	2
	2.68	3.25	2.35
	2.71	3.77	2.22
	2.63	3.67	2.3	Watch
	2.63	3.4	2.2
	2.71	3.56	2.21
	2.66	3.5	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↓ (3.22)	3.53 ↑ (3.27)	2.27 ↑ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Durham
34.1%

Draw
25.8%

Sunderland
40.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.6%

28.2%

43.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.8%

27.4%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Durham has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Durham's performance.

Sunderland has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Durham than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Durham that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sunderland than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Durham - Sunderland Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Sheppard C. (G) 2. Ayre G. 5. Wilson S. (C) 20. Foster M. 27. Jones A. 4. Toland T. 3. Briggs L. 16. Ede G. 8. Lambert M. 7. Hepple B. 9. Watson L.	16. Moloney G. (G) 24. Hamilton C. 5. Roberts R. (C) 27. Westrup B. 6. Griffiths L. 21. Sheva M. 14. Fenton N. 7. Watson K. 10. Kitching K. 8. Scarr E. 9. Dale E.
Substitutes
10. Blake H. 15. Bradley D. 48. Collinson G. 46. Coulson L. 13. King A. (G) 25. McFarland L. 6. Robson S. 21. Stobbs A.	37. Blades R. 11. Brown J. 17. Finn J. 4. Greenwood H. 26. Griffiths M. 20. Jones E. 1. Lambourne D. (G) 18. McInnes L. 31. Paxton C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
42', 1 - 0, Lambert M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
64', 1 - 1, Kitching K. ⚽, Watson K. (A),
70', Jones A. 🟨,
71', Jones A. ↓, McFarland L. ↑,
75', Kitching K. ↓, Jones E. ↑,
79', Briggs L. ↓, Collinson G. ↑,
81', 1 - 2, Griffiths L. ⚽, Watson K. (A),
88', Fenton N. ↓, Finn J. ↑,
90', Ede G. ↓, Robson S. ↑,
90+1', Scarr E. 🟨,
90+1', 1 - 3, Sheva M. ⚽,
90+3', 2 - 3, McFarland L. ⚽,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 10 and 8)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Durham won 1.

Recent form of Durham has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Sunderland's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Sunderland will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Durham won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 19:21. (average 1.6:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Durham won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 1.3:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Sunderland W	5	4	1	0	11:4	7	13
12	Durham W	5	0	0	5	5:16	-11	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Durham WFC
English WSL 2
15.02.26	Charlton Athletic - Durham	4:2 ✺
08.02.26	Durham - Birmingham City LFC	1:1 ✺
01.02.26	Durham - Portsmouth	2:1 ✺
25.01.26	Crystal Palace - Durham	4:0 ✺
21.12.25	Birmingham City LFC - Durham	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LTWLL
- Sunderland AFC Ladies
English WSL 2
31.01.26	Bristol City - Sunderland	3:0 ✺
25.01.26	Sunderland - Southampton	1:0 ✺
English FA Cup Women
17.01.26	Sunderland - London City Lionesses	0:1 ✺
English WSL 2
21.12.25	Sunderland - Ipswich Town	2:1 ✺
English FA Cup Women
14.12.25	Derby County - Sunderland	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Cup Women
23.11.25	Sunderland - Durham	2:1 penalties
English WSL 2
19.09.25	Sunderland - Durham	2:1
02.03.25	Sunderland - Durham	2:0
English League Cup Women
11.12.24	Sunderland - Durham	1:2
English WSL 2
20.10.24	Durham - Sunderland	1:2
24.03.24	Sunderland - Durham	5:3
English League Cup Women
08.11.23	Sunderland - Durham	2:3 penalties

Durham - Sunderland: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide