Match Info

BRAZIL: Paulista - Round 9

Date: 12 February 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Alfredo de Castilho (Bauru)

Referee: Murilo V. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Brasileirao Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	EC Noroeste		São Bernardo

	1	X	2
	3.2	2.9	2.45	Watch
	2.9	2.8	2.47	Watch
	3.05	3.05	2.54
	3.02	2.96	2.52	Watch
	2.9	2.8	2.5
	2.92	3.02	2.45	Watch
	2.9	2.8	2.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.98 ↓ (3.18)	2.9 ↑ (2.83)	2.49 ↑ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

EC Noroeste
31%

Draw
31.8%

São Bernardo
37.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.8%

32.4%

38.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.4%

30.8%

40.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

EC Noroeste has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

São Bernardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for EC Noroeste than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

EC Noroeste - São Bernardo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Felipe Alves (G) 66. Maykon Jesus 44. Maycon 30. Rodolfo Filemon 2. Cicinho 37. Thiago Lopes 21. Matheus Blade 5. Jonatas Paulista 26. Dudu Miraima 9. Carlao 7. Pedro Felipe	1. Alex Alves (G) 25. Pedro Carrerette 13. Matheus Salustiano 97. Augusto 2. Rodrigo Ferreira 31. Lucas Lima 17. Romisson 95. Para 11. Daniel Fabricio 8. Leo Jaba 9. Rodolfo
Substitutes
51. Adriano Filho 17. Buiu 3. Carlinhos 88. Denner 12. Felipe Rodrigues 1. Fernando Henrique (G) 94. Jeferson Romario (G) 99. Jenison 55. Leo Costa 11. Luiz Thiago 22. Renan Araujo	6. Arthur Henrique 55. Echapora 20. Emerson Santos 87. Felipe Azevedo 35. Foguinho 77. Guilherme Queiroz 21. Hugo Sanches 5. Kadi Silva 30. Lucas Rian 4. Rafael Forster 84. Vanderlei (G) 10. Vitinho
Coaches
Aal A.	Ricardo Catala

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 3)
6', 1 - 0, Dudu Miraima ⚽,
14', Cicinho 🟨,
16', 1 - 1, Leo Jaba (Pen),
22', Pedro Carrerette 🟨,
31', 1 - 2, Leo Jaba ⚽, Para (A),
33', Maycon 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 3, Daniel Fabricio (Pen),
45+2', Felipe Alves 🟨,
45+6', 2 - 3, Carlao ⚽, Maykon Jesus (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Matheus Blade ↓, Jenison ↑,
61', Maycon ↓, Carlinhos ↑,
61', Rodolfo ↓, Guilherme Queiroz ↑,
63', Augusto 🟨,
75', Jonatas Paulista ↓, Luiz Thiago ↑,
75', Thiago Lopes ↓, Adriano Filho ↑,
77', Leo Jaba ↓, Felipe Azevedo ↑,
77', Daniel Fabricio ↓, Hugo Sanches ↑,
81', Maykon Jesus ↓, Felipe Rodrigues ↑,
89', Lucas Lima ↓, Lucas Rian ↑,
89', Romisson ↓, Emerson Santos ↑,
90', 🟨,
90', Pedro Felipe 🟨,
90+4', Jenison 🟨,

Preview

Noroeste is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

São Bernardo is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Noroeste could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Noroeste
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
08.02.25	Mirassol - EC Noroeste	1:1 ✺
05.02.25	EC Noroeste - Ponte Preta	1:2 ✺
01.02.25	Corinthians - EC Noroeste	2:1 ✺
29.01.25	EC Noroeste - Internacional de Limeira	2:2 ✺
26.01.25	Guarani - EC Noroeste	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TLLTL
- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
09.02.25	Corinthians - São Bernardo	2:0 ✺
06.02.25	São Bernardo - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1 ✺
01.02.25	Internacional de Limeira - São Bernardo	1:2 ✺
29.01.25	São Bernardo - Santos	3:1 ✺
26.01.25	Botafogo SP - São Bernardo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 LTWWW

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