Match Info

TUNISIA: Ligue Professionnelle 1 - Round 25

Date: 13 March 2025, Thursday

Location: Gafsa Olympic Stadium (Gafsa)


	EGS Gafsa		Métlaoui

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.25	4.4
	1.52	3.55	6.2
	1.54	3.92	5.89
	1.53	3.79	5.85	Watch
	1.61	3.3	5.5
	1.51	3.72	5.96	Watch
	1.52	3.55	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (2.21)	3.58 ↑ (3.1)	5.71 ↑ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

EGS Gafsa
58.5%

Draw
25.5%

Métlaoui
16%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

29.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

29.3%

29.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

EGS Gafsa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in EGS Gafsa's performance.

Métlaoui has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Métlaoui might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for EGS Gafsa than the current prediction. (-17.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with EGS Gafsa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Métlaoui than the current prediction. (+13.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Métlaoui could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.2%	12.5%	6.2%

EGS Gafsa - Métlaoui Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Gafsa will win (votes: 13 - 81.3%). Métlaoui will win (votes: 1 - 6.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gafsa: 62.2% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
14. Jeridi R. (C) 23. Agbre N. 12. Ajmani A. 28. Ben Chaieb H. 11. Ben Hassine F. 4. Chabbi A. 19. Horchani A. 18. Jebali O. 7. Jouini A. 10. Mbarek H. 25. Traore A.	1. Abdelmouhib C. (G) 13. Ammar M. A. 5. Arfaoui Y. 19. Bodian C. 9. Bouassida A. 29. Diame Pape M. 10. Hajji B. 4. Khelifa M. H. (C) 30. Mazhoud A. 32. Ouled Behi A. 14. Stori A.
Substitutes
17. Al Omrani A. 24. Bennour M. 27. Chaabani B. 5. Chokri A. 13. Frioui A. (G) 9. Mbarek H. 15. Mejri S. 26. Yasser T.	23. Aouadi C. 15. Barhoumi A. 27. Ben C. H. (G) 35. Bououni S. 31. Dinari M. 28. Faleh M. 7. Helal H. 26. Knaissi A. 11. Lingazou S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Arfaoui Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', 1 - 0, Ajmani A. ⚽, Chabbi A. (A),
58', Diame Pape M. ↓, Lingazou S. ↑,
70', Ouled Behi A. ↓, Faleh M. ↑,
70', Ammar M. A. ↓, Barhoumi A. ↑,
70', Hajji B. ↓, Helal H. ↑,
72', 2 - 0, Mbarek H. ⚽,
75', Ben Hassine F. ↓, Al Omrani A. ↑,
78', Chabbi A. 🟨,
82', Mbarek H. ↓,
82', Ajmani A. ↓, Chokri A. ↑,
88', Mazhoud A. ↓, Dinari M. ↑,
90+2', Jouini A. ↓, Yasser T. ↑,
90+3', 🟨,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 8).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Gafsa won 1.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Gafsa could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Gafsa will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Gafsa won 2 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9:9 (average 1:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Gafsa won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:4 (average 1.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EGS Gafsa
Tunisian Ligue Professionnelle 1
09.03.25	Stade Tunisien - EGS Gafsa	2:1 ✺
03.03.25	EGS Gafsa - Soliman	4:0 ✺
27.02.25	Tataouine - EGS Gafsa	0:1 ✺
18.02.25	Olympique Béja - EGS Gafsa	3:1 ✺
12.02.25	EGS Gafsa - Sfaxien	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LWWLL
- Métlaoui
Tunisian Ligue Professionnelle 1
03.03.25	Ben Guerdane - Métlaoui	2:2 ✺
26.02.25	Métlaoui - Gabès	2:1 ✺
22.02.25	Étoile du Sahel - Métlaoui	2:1 ✺
18.02.25	Métlaoui - Bizertin	2:0 ✺
12.02.25	Espérance ST - Métlaoui	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Tunisian Ligue Professionnelle 1
01.12.24	Métlaoui - EGS Gafsa	2:1
01.06.24	Métlaoui - EGS Gafsa	1:1
09.03.24	EGS Gafsa - Métlaoui	1:0
13.03.16	EGS Gafsa - Métlaoui	2:2
13.10.15	Métlaoui - EGS Gafsa	1:0
18.02.15	Métlaoui - EGS Gafsa	1:2
20.08.14	EGS Gafsa - Métlaoui	2:2

EGS Gafsa - Métlaoui: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide