Match Info

NM Cup - 1/8-finals

Date: 20 May 2025, Tuesday

Location: B&G Parken (Egersund)


	Egersund		Sarpsborg 08

	1	X	2
	3.9	3.7	1.83
	3.3	3.6	1.83
	3.4	3.6	2.05
	3.58	3.74	2.02
	3.32	3.64	2.05	Watch
	3.3	3.5	1.95
	3.48	3.82	1.99
	3.4	3.6	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.46 ↑ (2.12)	3.65 ↓ (3.75)	1.97 ↓ (3.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Egersund
27%

Draw
25.6%

Sarpsborg 08
47.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

25.4%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

25.4%

29.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Egersund has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Egersund's form might have worsened.

Sarpsborg 08 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sarpsborg 08's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Egersund than the current prediction. (+17.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Egersund, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarpsborg 08 than the current prediction. (-17.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sarpsborg 08, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	8.3%	75%

Egersund - Sarpsborg 08 Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Egersund will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Sarpsborg will win (votes: 9 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sarpsborg: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Sarpsborg (1.44) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Sarpsborg (1.28) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sarpsborg 08 will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Egersund (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Sarpsborg (votes: 6 - 85.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hermansen A. (G) 2. Kleppa H. 31. Jonsson I. (C) 5. Jenssen N. 14. Oprea F. 11. Bergersen A. 13. Pichkah P. 27. Vatne S. 45. Sauer M. 9. Kapskarmo O. 7. Salama O.	13. Eriksson C. (G) 32. Wichne E. 2. Koch M. (C) 30. Tebo Uchenna F. 3. Jeahze M. 22. Halvorsen V. E. 6. Sher A. 16. Carstensen F. 10. Tangen H. 7. Sanyang A. 19. Gudjohnsen S.
Substitutes
91. Davis S. 21. Eggen K. 15. Elvevold H. 17. Halgunset I. 28. Job D. 12. Klausen P. (G) 26. Salmon J. 22. Tadesse H. 19. Yrga-Alem F.	8. Christiansen S. 29. Haheim-Elveseter M. 11. Karlsbakk D. 1. Ndiaye M. (G) 5. Odegaard M. 20. Reinhardsen P. 4. Skuseth N. 81. Svenningsen Gronn M. 18. Vestergaard M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
3', 1 - 0, Sauer M. ⚽, Oprea F. (A),
27', Hermansen A. 🟨,
28', Gudjohnsen S. (Pen),
40', 1 - 1, Gudjohnsen S. ⚽, Sanyang A. (A),
42', 1 - 2, Halvorsen V. E. ⚽, Gudjohnsen S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Bergersen A. ↓, Job D. ↑,
50', Jeahze M. 🟨,
60', Carstensen F. ↓, Karlsbakk D. ↑,
60', Jeahze M. ↓, Reinhardsen P. ↑,
67', Vatne S. 🟨,
67', Gudjohnsen S. ↓, Haheim-Elveseter M. ↑,
69', Vatne S. ↓, Tadesse H. ↑,
70', Sauer M. ↓, Salmon J. ↑,
76', Jenssen N. 🟥,
76', 1 - 3, Karlsbakk D. ⚽, Sanyang A. (A),
78', Sanyang A. ↓, Odegaard M. ↑,
78', Wichne E. ↓, Christiansen S. ↑,
79', Kapskarmo O. ↓, Davis S. ↑,
83', Pichkah P. ↓, Halgunset I. ↑,

Preview

Egersund is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Sarpsborg's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Egersund may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Egersund has had a series of away games.

Sarpsborg is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Egersunds IK
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
16.05.25	Start - Egersund	2:1 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
07.05.25	Ranheim - Egersund	2:3 penalties ✺
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
03.05.25	Odd - Egersund	1:1 ✺
28.04.25	Raufoss - Egersund	0:1 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
24.04.25	Jerv - Egersund	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 LWTWW
- Sarpsborg 08
Norwegian Eliteserien
16.05.25	Brann - Sarpsborg 08	2:2 ✺
11.05.25	Sarpsborg 08 - Hamarkameratene	4:0 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
07.05.25	Sarpsborg 08 - Sandefjord	3:1 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
04.05.25	Viking Stavanger - Sarpsborg 08	0:0 ✺
27.04.25	Sarpsborg 08 - Strømsgodset	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 TWWTL

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