Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 9

Date: 12 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Ipurua (Eibar)

Referee: Morilla A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Dsports 9
Ecuador	DSports 9
Mexico	Sky Sport
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Peru	DSports 9
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion 2


	Eibar		Castellón

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.1	3	Watch
	2.38	3.1	2.92	Watch
	2.48	3.24	3.15
	2.78	2.69	3.01	Watch
	2.45	3.05	3.01	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↑ (2.01)	3.04 ↓ (3.6)	3.02 ↓ (3.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Eibar
37.8%

Draw
31%

Castellón
31.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

25.9%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.6%

26.6%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Eibar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Eibar's form might have worsened.

Castellón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Eibar than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Eibar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castellón than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	14.3%	19%

Eibar - Castellón Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Eibar will win (votes: 14 - 70%). Castellón will win (votes: 3 - 15%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 15%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Eibar: 49.9% – 90.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Eibar (1.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Eibar will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Eibar (votes: 4 - 80%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Magunagoitia J. (G) 2. Cubero S. 21. Moreno M. 23. Arbilla A. (C) 22. Rodriguez A. 30. Garrido A. 6. Alvarez S. 7. Alkain X. 11. Magunazelaia Argoitia J. 18. Ares A. 9. Bautista J.	13. Matthys R. (G) 22. Mellot J. 5. Jimenez A. 17. Ruiz S. (C) 12. Alcazar 6. Doue M. 25. Ronaldo 7. Mabil A. 21. Calatrava A. 23. Mamah K. 19. Jakobsen A.
Substitutes
4. Arambarri A. 3. Arrillaga H. 10. Guruzeta J. 15. Jair 20. Javier Marton 1. Lopez L. (G) 5. Martinez J. 8. Nolaskoain P. 14. Olaetxea L. 19. Villa T.	1. Abedzadeh A. (G) 8. Barri 29. De Nipoti T. 50. Ferrando J. (G) 56. Ferrer M. 15. Gerenabarrena B. 20. Markanich N. 18. Santiago P. 30. Selles D. 24. Serpeta 26. Tincho 55. Willman M.
Coaches
San Jose B.	Hernandez P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45', Mamah K. 🟨,
45', Rodriguez A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Ronaldo 🟨,
61', Mabil A. ↓, De Nipoti T. ↑,
63', Doue M. 🟨,
64', Alkain X. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
64', Garrido A. ↓, Guruzeta J. ↑,
73', Magunazelaia Argoitia J. ↓, Javier Marton ↑,
73', Cubero S. ↓, Nolaskoain P. ↑,
75', Ronaldo ↓, Gerenabarrena B. ↑,
75', Jakobsen A. ↓, Santiago P. ↑,
81', Mamah K. ↓, Markanich N. ↑,
86', Moreno M. ↓, Arambarri A. ↑,
86', Ares A. ↓, Villa T. ↑,
90+5', De Nipoti T. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 10 and 11).

In recent matches, Eibar has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Castellón is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Castellón may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Eibar: Arambarri A. (Hamstring Injury) Buta L. (Red Card) Corpas J. (Yellow Cards) Madariaga A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Castellón: Aurelio D. (Knee Injury) Brignani F. (Injury) Camara O. (International duty) Cipenga B. (International duty) Gil O. (Injury) Sienra A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Castellón: Ronaldo (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Eibar won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Eibar won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Eibar
Spanish LaLiga2
03.10.25	Ceuta - Eibar	1:0 ✺
27.09.25	Eibar - Deportivo A Coruña	1:1 ✺
21.09.25	Eibar - Real Sociedad B	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Cádiz - Eibar	1:0 ✺
08.09.25	Eibar - FC Andorra	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LTWLW
- CD Castellón
Spanish LaLiga2
05.10.25	Castellón - Sporting de Gijón	3:1 ✺
29.09.25	Leganés - Castellón	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Leonesa - Castellón	1:3 ✺
14.09.25	Castellón - Ceuta	3:3 ✺
05.09.25	Córdoba - Castellón	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
15.02.25	Castellón - Eibar	2:0
17.08.24	Eibar - Castellón	1:0

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