Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 6

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Reino de León (León)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Dsports 9
Ecuador	DSports 9
Mexico	Sky Sport
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Peru	DSports 9
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion


	Leonesa		Castellón

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.75	1.96	Watch
	3.15	3.6	2.05
	3.47	3.79	2.06
	24.48	11.10	1.07	Watch
	3.36	3.77	2.09	Watch
	2.8	3.65	2.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.78 ↑ (2.7)	4.94 ↑ (3.57)	1.93 ↓ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leonesa
17%

Draw
23.3%

Castellón
59.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.6%

26.2%

39.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36%

25.2%

37.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leonesa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Leonesa's form might have worsened.

Castellón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+20.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Castellón's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leonesa than the current prediction. (+19%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Leonesa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castellón than the current prediction. (-22.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Castellón, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	50%	37.5%

Leonesa - Castellón Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Leonesa will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Castellón will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Leonesa (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Leonesa (2.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Leonesa (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Badia E. (G) 17. Calero I. 4. Rodri Suarez (C) 5. Fornos Q. 21. Hinojo R. 28. Ojeda T. 14. Bicho 23. Diallo Selu M. 10. Chacon L. 22. Pibe 19. Sobrino R.	13. Matthys R. (G) 22. Mellot J. 5. Jimenez A. (C) 4. Sienra A. 12. Alcazar 8. Barri 25. Ronaldo 16. Cipenga B. 21. Calatrava A. 18. Santiago P. 19. Jakobsen A.
Substitutes
1. Banuz M. (G) 7. Collado D. 11. Cortes P. 24. Garcia V. 8. Gonzalez Y. 9. Justo M. 33. Larios J. 2. Mboula J. 18. Paraschiv D. 26. Rafus A. (G) 15. Ribeiro L. 16. Ribeiro T.	1. Abedzadeh A. (G) 3. Brignani F. 6. Doue M. 15. Gerenabarrena B. 14. Gil O. 7. Mabil A. 23. Mamah K. 20. Markanich N. 17. Ruiz S. 24. Serpeta 10. Suero I. 26. Tincho
Coaches
Llona R.	Hernandez P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
8', 0 - 1, Calatrava A. ⚽,
11', 0 - 2, Barri ⚽,
13', Fornos Q. ↓, Ribeiro T. ↑,
23', Jakobsen A. 🟨,
33', Alcazar 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', Barri 🟨,
55', Ronaldo 🟨,
57', Ojeda T. 🟨,
57', Ronaldo ↓, Gerenabarrena B. ↑,
58', Alcazar ↓, Ruiz S. ↑,
61', Diallo Selu M. ↓, Cortes P. ↑,
61', Pibe ↓, Justo M. ↑,
61', Sobrino R. ↓, Mboula J. ↑,
64', 1 - 2, Justo M. ⚽,
66', Sienra A. ↓, Brignani F. ↑,
67', Barri ↓, Doue M. ↑,
78', Santiago P. ↓, Mamah K. ↑,
82', 1 - 3, Mamah K. ⚽, Calatrava A. (A),
86', Hinojo R. ↓, Larios J. ↑,
87', Justo M. 🟨,
89', Calero I. 🟥,
90+1', Matthys R. 🟨,
90+3', Jimenez A. 🟨,

Preview

Leonesa has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Castellón is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Leonesa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Leonesa: Maestre S. (Knee Injury) Satrustegui E. (Knee Injury) Tresaco R. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Castellón: Aurelio D. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Leonesa: Barzic M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Castellón: Camara O. (Inactive)

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa
Spanish LaLiga2
14.09.25	Racing Santander - Leonesa	2:4 ✺
Club Friendly
10.09.25	Alcorcón - Leonesa	0:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
07.09.25	Leonesa - Leganés	0:0 ✺
29.08.25	Sporting de Gijón - Leonesa	1:0 ✺
24.08.25	Leonesa - Almería	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.7 WWTLL
- CD Castellón
Spanish LaLiga2
14.09.25	Castellón - Ceuta	3:3 ✺
05.09.25	Córdoba - Castellón	2:1 ✺
30.08.25	Castellón - Zaragoza	1:1 ✺
22.08.25	Castellón - Valladolid	0:1 ✺
16.08.25	Racing Santander - Castellón	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 TLTLL

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