Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 8

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube (Ceuta)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
France	beIN Sports 1
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect
Mexico	Sky Sport
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 2
Serbia	Arena Sport 8
Slovenia	Arena Sport 4
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	TV4 Play
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Ceuta		Eibar

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.2	2.45	Watch
	2.75	3	2.45
	2.88	3.05	2.45	Watch
	2.99	3.16	2.62
	1.62	2.99	8.99	Watch
	2.9	3.08	2.51	Watch
	2.9	3.1	2.49
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↓ (2.93)	3.08 ↓ (3.1)	3.42 ↑ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceuta
37.6%

Draw
32.8%

Eibar
29.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.7%

29.9%

38.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.5%

29.7%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceuta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ceuta's performance.

Eibar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Eibar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ceuta that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Eibar than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Eibar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	33.3%	44.4%

Ceuta - Eibar Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Ceuta will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Eibar will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Eibar: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Eibar (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Eibar (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Eibar (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Vallejo G. (G) 23. Anuar 6. Hernandez C. 15. Gonzalez D. 3. Matos Jose 9. Fernandez Sanchez M. 5. Youness 19. Jamelli 7. Ahmed A. 8. Zalazar K. 22. Kone K.	13. Magunagoitia J. (G) 2. Cubero S. 21. Moreno M. 8. Nolaskoain P. 24. Buta L. 6. Alvarez S. 30. Garrido A. 17. Corpas J. 11. Magunazelaia Argoitia J. 18. Ares A. 9. Bautista J.
Substitutes
26. Bassinga A. 14. Bodiger Y. 24. Cantero Y. 4. Caparros A. 18. de la Fuente K. 20. Escudero A. 1. Lopez P. (G) 12. Obeng S. 16. Redruello Nimo C. 10. Rodriguez C. 25. Sanchez S. 21. Vallejo M.	7. Alkain X. 23. Arbilla A. 3. Arrillaga H. 10. Guruzeta J. 15. Jair 20. Javier Marton 1. Lopez L. (G) 5. Martinez J. 14. Olaetxea L. 22. Rodriguez A. 19. Villa T.
Coaches
Romero J.	San Jose B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', Buta L. 🟥,
30', Ares A. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
43', Anuar 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 0, Youness ⚽, Zalazar K. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Magunazelaia Argoitia J. ↓, Javier Marton ↑,
46', Garrido A. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
71', Anuar ↓, Sanchez S. ↑,
78', Zalazar K. ↓, de la Fuente K. ↑,
78', Kone K. ↓, Escudero A. ↑,
79', Cubero S. ↓, Guruzeta J. ↑,
81', Corpas J. 🟨,
84', Corpas J. ↓, Arbilla A. ↑,
88', Jamelli 🟨,
89', Jamelli ↓, Bodiger Y. ↑,
90', Fernandez Sanchez M. ↓, Obeng S. ↑,
90+2', de la Fuente K. 🟨,
90+3', Sanchez S. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 15 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Ceuta: Ortuno J. (Injury)

There will not play in Eibar: Arambarri A. (Hamstring Injury) Madariaga A. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Ceuta: Sanchez M. (Injury)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Eibar - the odds 2.42 are the expected chance of winning is 38.36%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Ceuta
Spanish LaLiga2
28.09.25	Cádiz - Ceuta	0:0 ✺
21.09.25	Ceuta - Zaragoza	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Castellón - Ceuta	3:3 ✺
07.09.25	Ceuta - Huesca	2:1 ✺
30.08.25	Racing Santander - Ceuta	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 TWTWL
- SD Eibar
Spanish LaLiga2
27.09.25	Eibar - Deportivo A Coruña	1:1 ✺
21.09.25	Eibar - Real Sociedad B	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Cádiz - Eibar	1:0 ✺
08.09.25	Eibar - FC Andorra	2:0 ✺
01.09.25	Huesca - Eibar	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TWLWL

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