Match Info

Premier League - Relegation Group - Round 2

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Khaled Bichara Stadium (El Gouna)

Where to Watch on TV:


Egypt	Kora Plus


	El Gouna		Al-Ittihad Alexandria

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.82	2.62	2.82	Watch
	2.77	2.55	3.74
	2.7	2.63	3.13
	2.8	2.6	2.9
	2.78	2.49	2.86	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.77 ↓ (2.86)	2.58 ↓ (2.59)	3.09 ↑ (2.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

El Gouna
33.6%

Draw
36.2%

Al-Ittihad Alexandria
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.3%

35.7%

32%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.5%

35.5%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

El Gouna has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Al-Ittihad Alexandria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Gouna than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Ittihad Alexandria than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	91.7%	0%

El Gouna - Al Ittihad Alexandria Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. El Gouna will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 91.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 76.1% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Alaa M. (G) 3. Khaled A. 4. Abdel Rasoul Ahmed 5. El Shimi S. 2. Taalab A. 13. El Gazar O. 14. El Sayed N. (C) 6. Ibrahim H. 17. Gamal A. 22. El Nahas M. 24. El Zahdi A.	16. Genesh M. (G) 18. Ebuka J. 24. Gouda A. 5. Ibrahim M. 14. Mohamed A. (C) 25. Emad M. 23. Isaac S. 27. Magdi A. 10. Afsha 11. Wahid Y. 6. Shabana M.
Substitutes
20. Belia A. 30. Emad M. 10. Mahmoud M. 1. Masoud A. (G) 28. Metawea M. 29. Ojo T. 7. Refaat A. 8. Salah R. 36. Turay A.	4. Alaa M. 19. Alaa N. 22. Body 33. Eid A. 9. Farid F. 90. Mabululu 34. Sherif M. 1. Soliman S. (G) 13. Tony M.
Coaches
Bebo A.	Mostafa T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', El Zahdi A. ↓, Emad M. ↑,
65', Ebuka J. ↓, Farid F. ↑,
65', Mohamed A. ↓, Alaa N. ↑,
80', El Gazar O. ↓, Refaat A. ↑,
81', Gamal A. ↓, Salah R. ↑,
84', Wahid Y. ↓, Tony M. ↑,
86', Ibrahim H. ↓, Mahmoud M. ↑,
87', El Nahas M. ↓, Ojo T. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, El Gouna won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Al-Ittihad may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, El Gouna won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 16:13. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, El Gouna won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:5. (average 1.4:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Al Ittihad	5	3	1	1	6:3	3	10
18	El Gouna	5	0	2	3	3:6	-3	2

Last Results with these Odds

Al-Ittihad Alexandria - the odds 2.89 are the expected chance of winning is 32.01%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- El Gouna
Egyptian League Cup
30.03.26	Al Masry - El Gouna	2:2 ✺
26.03.26	El Gouna - Al Masry	0:2 ✺
Egyptian Premier League
20.03.26	Wadi Degla - El Gouna	0:0 ✺
10.03.26	El Gouna - Al Masry	1:0 ✺
06.03.26	El Gouna - Wadi Degla	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 TLTWT
- Al-Ittihad Alexandria
Egyptian Premier League
22.03.26	Al-Ittihad Alexandria - Pharco	1:1 ✺
06.03.26	Zamalek - Al-Ittihad Alexandria	1:0 ✺
02.03.26	Al-Ittihad Alexandria - Ghazl El Mahalla	2:0 ✺
25.02.26	Petrojet - Al-Ittihad Alexandria	1:0 ✺
16.02.26	Al-Ittihad Alexandria - Smouha	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Egyptian Premier League
23.11.25	Al-Ittihad Alexandria - El Gouna	0:2
11.03.25	El Gouna - Al-Ittihad Alexandria	2:0
17.02.25	Al-Ittihad Alexandria - El Gouna	1:0
27.04.24	El Gouna - Al-Ittihad Alexandria	2:1
06.10.23	Al-Ittihad Alexandria - El Gouna	2:2
27.05.22	El Gouna - Al-Ittihad Alexandria	1:0
18.11.21	Al-Ittihad Alexandria - El Gouna	1:0

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