The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
El Nacional 15.2%
Draw 22.4%
Vinotinto 62.4%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
21.1%
27.9%
50.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
21.1%
27.9%
50.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
El Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that El Nacional's form might have worsened.
Vinotinto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.5%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vinotinto's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (+5.9%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for El Nacional, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (-11.5%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vinotinto, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
0%
0%
100%
El Nacional - Vinotinto Predictions
Users Predictions:
Vinotinto will win
(6 of 6 users predict this - 100%). Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
59', 0 - 2, ⚽,
90+3', 1 - 2, ⚽,
Preview
A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 12 in the zone Serie B (Relegation Group: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion Group: )).
El Nacional has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Vinotinto has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
Vinotinto may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Vinotinto is considered a favorite.
In the last 2 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).
Including home match between the teams, El Nacional won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.
Standings
Promotion Group
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
3
Vinotinto
29
13
9
7
37:22
15
48
Last Results with these Odds
Vinotinto - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 50.94%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.
Chile
Ecuador
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