Match Info

Serie B - Promotion Group - Round 4

Date: 17 September 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports


	Vinotinto		9 de Octubre

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.05	2.70	3.80
	2.12	2.65	3.65	Watch
	2.15	2.68	4.32
	2.12	2.75	4.27	Watch
	2.16	2.88	3.86	Watch
	2.10	2.70	3.70
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↓ (2.4)	2.73 ↑ (2.55)	3.93 ↑ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vinotinto
43.2%

Draw
33.5%

9 de Octubre
23.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.2%

35%

27.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.5%

35.7%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vinotinto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vinotinto's performance.

9 de Octubre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vinotinto that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for 9 de Octubre than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that 9 de Octubre could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Vinotinto - 9 de Octubre Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
86', 1 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vinotinto won 2.

Vinotinto is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, 9 de Octubre has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Vinotinto has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Vinotinto won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 20:13. (average 2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Vinotinto won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:5. (average 2.8:1).

Standings

Promotion Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Vinotinto	29	13	9	7	37:22	15	48
4	Nueve de Octubre	28	11	12	5	31:20	11	45

Last Results with these Odds

9 de Octubre - the odds 3.2 are the expected chance of winning is 27.87%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vinotinto Ecuador
Ecuadorian Serie B
11.09.26	Cuenca Juniors - Vinotinto	0:2 ✺
03.09.26	Vinotinto - San Antonio	4:2 ✺
27.08.26	Vinotinto - Atlético Rojiblanco	1:0 ✺
13.08.26	Vinotinto - LDU Portoviejo	0:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
05.08.26	Vinotinto - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWWTL
- 9 de Octubre FC
Ecuadorian Serie B
12.09.26	9 de Octubre - Independiente Juniors	3:1 ✺
04.09.26	Atlético Rojiblanco - 9 de Octubre	2:2 ✺
27.08.26	Cuenca Juniors - 9 de Octubre	1:1 ✺
20.08.26	San Antonio - 9 de Octubre	0:0 ✺
15.08.26	9 de Octubre - Independiente Juniors	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WTTTT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Serie B
09.06.26	9 de Octubre - Vinotinto	2:1
08.04.26	Vinotinto - 9 de Octubre	0:1
16.10.24	Vinotinto - 9 de Octubre	5:2
01.09.24	9 de Octubre - Vinotinto	3:2
05.06.24	Vinotinto - 9 de Octubre	3:1
10.04.24	9 de Octubre - Vinotinto	1:0
20.09.23	9 de Octubre - Vinotinto	1:2

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