Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 39

Date: 11 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Nuevo Pepico Amat (Elda)

Referee: Galech I. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Dsports 9
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 9
Ecuador	DSports 9
India	GXR World
Mexico	Sky Sport
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Peru	DSports 9
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana, GolStadium, LaLiga Hypermotion, LaLiga TV Bar 3


	Eldense		Málaga

	1	X	2
	2	3.4	3.7	Watch
	1.77	3.3	4.33
	2.07	3.35	3.5	Watch
	2.11	3.41	3.82
	2.06	3.39	3.7	Watch
	1.91	3.25	4
	2.01	3.42	3.72	Watch
	2.07	3.35	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↑ (1.82)	3.36 ↓ (3.4)	3.78 ↓ (4.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Eldense
47.1%

Draw
28%

Málaga
24.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.5%

27.5%

21%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.7%

29.8%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Eldense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Málaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Eldense than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Eldense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Málaga, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.7%	13.3%	40%

Eldense - Málaga Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Eldense will win (votes: 7 - 46.7%). Málaga will win (votes: 6 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Eldense: 21.5% – 71.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Eldense (votes: 3 - 60%). Málaga (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Martin D. (G) 15. Gamez F. 4. Dumic D. 26. Barzic M. 23. Mateu M. 17. Garcia V. 8. Ortuno S. (C) 12. Diawara A. 10. Llabres J. 22. Gassama S. 25. Collado D.	1. Herrero A. (C) 16. Murillo D. 20. Monte N. 4. Galilea E. 18. Sanchez D. 26. Cordero A. 29. Merino I. 19. Luismi 24. Lobete J. 10. Larrubia D. 27. Chupe
Substitutes
21. Bernal A. 7. Bouzaidi S. 6. Camarasa V. 20. Chapela I. 19. Fede 13. Mackay I. (G) 3. Martos I. 14. Monsalve N. 11. Ortuno J. 2. Parra R. 9. Quintana Nacho 24. Timor D.	9. Baturina R. 17. Dioni 2. Gabilondo J. 14. Garcia V. 8. Juanpe 13. Lopez C. (G) 12. Molina M. 5. Pastor A. 3. Puga C. 21. Rahmani Y. 37. Rodriguez R. 23. Sangalli L.
Coaches
Oltra J.	Pellicer S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Galilea E. 🟥,
31', Cordero A. ↓, Pastor A. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Gamez F. ↓, Ortuno J. ↑,
61', Ortuno J. 🟨,
63', 1 - 0, Ortuno J. ⚽, Ortuno S. (A),
67', Lobete J. ↓, Dioni ↑,
67', Murillo D. ↓, Puga C. ↑,
68', Merino I. ↓, Molina M. ↑,
71', Collado D. ↓, Parra R. ↑,
79', Llabres J. ↓, Chapela I. ↑,
79', Gassama S. ↓, Fede ↑,
82', Ortuno S. 🟨,
85', Larrubia D. ↓, Rodriguez R. ↑,
88', Ortuno S. ↓, Bernal A. ↑,
90+7', Ortuno J. 🟥,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 15).

Recent form of Eldense has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Málaga's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Eldense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Eldense is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Eldense: Mendez D. (Injury) Pina (Injury)

There will not play in Málaga: Abaida H. (Hamstring Injury) Enriquez R. (Knee Injury) Lorenzo D. (Inactive) Ochoa A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Eldense: Masca (Injury) Monsalve N. (Personal Reasons)

There are questionable in Málaga: Medina K. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Eldense won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:4. (average 0:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Eldense
Spanish LaLiga2
04.05.25	Almería - Eldense	5:0 ✺
26.04.25	Eldense - Córdoba	1:1 ✺
19.04.25	Ferrol - Eldense	1:0 ✺
13.04.25	Eldense - Sporting de Gijón	1:2 ✺
05.04.25	Cartagena - Eldense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LTLLW
- Málaga CF
Spanish LaLiga2
03.05.25	Málaga - Granada	1:0 ✺
27.04.25	Málaga - Castellón	1:0 ✺
21.04.25	Eibar - Málaga	2:2 ✺
14.04.25	Huesca - Málaga	1:0 ✺
06.04.25	Málaga - Córdoba	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
18.12.24	Málaga - Eldense	3:0
Spanish Copa del Rey
06.12.23	Málaga - Eldense	1:0

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