Match Info

Esiliiga - Round 27

Date: 6 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Nike Arena (Elva)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Elva		Nõmme Kalju U21

	1	X	2
	1.70	3.90	3.60
	1.63	3.95	3.75
	1.70	4.17	3.65
	1.81	4.31	3.24
	1.63	4.15	3.60
	1.78	4.40	3.56
	1.71	4.00	3.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.53)	4.13 ↓ (4.55)	3.56 ↓ (4.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 8.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elva
52.8%

Draw
21.9%

Nõmme Kalju U21
25.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.1%

19.8%

21.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.6%

19%

20.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elva has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Elva's form might have worsened.

Nõmme Kalju U21 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elva than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Elva, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nõmme Kalju U21 than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nõmme Kalju U21, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Elva - Nõmme Kalju U21 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', 1 - 0, Alev P. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Elva won 2.

Elva is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Nõmme Kalju U21 has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Nõmme Kalju U21 may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Elva is a strong favorite.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Elva won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:12. (average 1.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Elva won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 1.5:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Elva	31	15	6	10	47:44	3	51
9	Nomme Kalju U21	31	7	4	20	38:79	-41	25

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Elva
Estonian Esiliiga
03.09.26	Nõmme United U21 - Elva	0:1 ✺
24.08.26	Elva - Flora U21	0:0 ✺
20.08.26	Elva - Maardu Linnameeskond	1:0 ✺
15.08.26	Tallinna Kalev - Elva	1:0 ✺
08.08.26	Elva - Tartu Welco	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 WTWLW
- Nõmme Kalju U21
Estonian Esiliiga
29.08.26	FC Tallinn - Nõmme Kalju U21	0:2 ✺
23.08.26	Nõmme Kalju U21 - Tartu Welco	2:4 ✺
20.08.26	Nõmme Kalju U21 - Tallinna Kalev	0:3 ✺
17.08.26	Nõmme United U21 - Nõmme Kalju U21	2:0 ✺
10.08.26	Flora U21 - Nõmme Kalju U21	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Esiliiga
05.07.26	Nõmme Kalju U21 - Elva	2:2
02.05.26	Elva - Nõmme Kalju U21	2:4
04.10.25	Elva - Nõmme Kalju U21	0:1
30.08.25	Nõmme Kalju U21 - Elva	0:1
11.05.25	Elva - Nõmme Kalju U21	2:1
08.03.25	Nõmme Kalju U21 - Elva	0:2
Estonian Cup
24.08.22	Elva - Nõmme Kalju U21	Elva walkover

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