Match Info

Euro Women - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 22 July 2025, Tuesday

Location: Stade de Genève (Geneva)

Referee: Martincic I. (Cro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 2, New World Sport App, Sporty TV, StarTimes App, SuperSport Football, SuperSport Maximo 360
Albania	RTSH Sport
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	1TV
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	Optus Sport, Stan Sport
Austria	ORF 1, ORF On, Sky Go Austria
Belgium	BNT News App, RTBF Auvio Direct, RTBF Tipik, VRT Canvas
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	BHT 1
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV
Bulgaria	BNT 1, BNT 3
Canada	RDS, TSN+
Colombia	ESPN 2, ESPN
Croatia	HRT 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	RIK 1
Czech-republic	CT sport
Denmark	TV3, Viaplay
Estonia	ETV 2
Finland	Viaplay, YLE Areena, YLE TV2
France	Free, Molotov TV, TF 1, TMC
Georgia	1TV, 1TV Player
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, WOW
Greece	ERT 2
Hong-kong	HOY TV
Hungary	M4 Sport
Iceland	RUV
India	FanCode, FanCode
Ireland	RTE 2, RTE Player
Italy	RAI 2, RaiPlay
Kosovo	RTK 1
Latvia	LTV 7
Lithuania	LRT Plius
Malta	TVM Sport+
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
Moldova	TVR Moldova
Montenegro	TVCG 2
Netherlands	Canal+, NPO 1, Sporza
North-central-america	ESPN Norte
North-macedonia	MRT 1, MRT Play
Norway	TV2, TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app, TVP Sport
Portugal	Sport TV1
Romania	TVR+, TVR Sport
Serbia	RTS 2
Slovakia	STVR Sport
Slovenia	Slovenia TV2
South-america	ESPN 2 South, ViX Latin America
Spain	RTVE Play, Teledeporte
Sweden	Discovery+, SVT 1, SVT Play, Viaplay
Switzerland	Play RTS, Play RTS, RSI La 2, RTS 2, RTS 2, RTS Sport, RTS Sport, SRF 2, SRF 2, SRF Play, SRF Play, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV, TF 1
Turkey	Tabii, TRT Spor
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine, Suspilne Sport
United-kingdom	ITV 1, ITV X, STV, STV Player, UTV
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	FOX Network, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
World	Sport 24


	England W		Italy W

	1	X	2
	1.6	4	5.25
	1.6	3.9	5.25
	1.6	4.05	5.3
	1.62	4.05	6.3
	1.62	3.49	6.22	Watch
	1.57	3.9	5
	1.62	4.21	5.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↑ (1.51)	3.94 ↓ (4.47)	5.56 ↓ (5.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

England W
59%

Draw
24%

Italy W
17%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.8%

21.2%

16%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.5%

20.3%

15.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

England W has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Italy W has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for England W than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for England W, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Italy W than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
79.3%	10.3%	10.3%

England W - Italy W Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Italy (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DC - Italy (2.28) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0 - England (1.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: England W will win (22 of 28 users predict this - 78.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 63.37% – 93.77%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): England W will win (7 of 9 users predict this - 77.78%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. England (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Italy (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hampton H. (G) Chelsea 2. Bronze L. Chelsea 6. Williamson L. (C) Arsenal 15. Morgan E. Washington Spirit 5. Greenwood A. Manchester City 10. Toone E. Manchester United 4. Walsh K. Chelsea 8. Stanway G. Bayern Munich 7. James L. Chelsea 23. Russo A. Arsenal 11. Hemp L. Manchester City	1. Giuliani L. (G) AC Milan 2. Oliviero E. Lazio 19. Lenzini M. Juventus 23. Salvai C. Juventus 5. Linari E. AS Roma 3. Di Guglielmo L. AS Roma 7. Cantore S. Washington Spirit 18. Caruso A. Bayern Munich 6. Giugliano M. AS Roma 11. Bonansea B. Juventus 10. Girelli C. (C) Juventus
Substitutes
17. Agyemang M. 19. Beever-Jones A. Chelsea 16. Carter J. Gotham FC 3. Charles N. Chelsea 14. Clinton G. Manchester United 21. Keating K. (G) Manchester City 18. Kelly C. Arsenal 12. Le Tissier M. Manchester United 9. Mead B. Arsenal 13. Moorhouse A. (G) Orlando Pride 20. Park J. Manchester City 22. Wubben-Moy C. Arsenal	12. Baldi R. (G) 14. Bergamaschi V. Juventus 17. Boattin L. Juventus 21. Cambiaghi M. Juventus 22. Durante F. (G) Inter 16. Goldoni E. Lazio 20. Greggi G. AS Roma 9. Piemonte M. Lazio 13. Piga J. AC Milan 4. Schatzer E. Juventus 15. Serturini A. Inter 8. Severini E. Fiorentina
Coaches
Wiegman S.	Soncin A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
33', 0 - 1, Bonansea B. ⚽, Cantore S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', James L. ↓, Mead B. ↑,
64', Girelli C. ↓, Piemonte M. ↑,
73', Cantore S. ↓, Cambiaghi M. ↑,
73', Bonansea B. ↓, Severini E. ↑,
74', Giuliani L. 🟨,
74', Soncin A. 🟨,
77', Stanway G. ↓, Kelly C. ↑,
85', Williamson L. ↓, Agyemang M. ↑,
85', Russo A. ↓, Beever-Jones A. ↑,
88', Linari E. 🟨,
89', Giugliano M. ↓, Greggi G. ↑,
89', Lenzini M. ↓, Piga J. ↑,
90+2', Morgan E. 🟨,
90+2', Cambiaghi M. 🟨,
90+6', 1 - 1, Agyemang M. ⚽,
Extra Time (1 - 0)
106', Walsh K. ↓, Clinton G. ↑,
119', Kelly C. (Pen),
119', 2 - 1, Kelly C. ⚽,
120+1', Greenwood A. ↓, Carter J. ↑,
120+4', Mead B. 🟨,

Preview

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

England may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, England is the obvious favorite.

We predict that England will win today's game, with odds of 1.51.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, England won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:3. (average 2.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- England W
UEFA Euro Women
17.07.25	Sweden W - England W	2:3 penalties ✺
13.07.25	England W - Wales W	6:1 ✺
09.07.25	England W - Netherlands W	4:0 ✺
05.07.25	France W - England W	2:1 ✺
Friendly International Women
29.06.25	England W - Jamaica W	7:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWWLW
- Italy W
UEFA Euro Women
16.07.25	Norway W - Italy W	1:2 ✺
11.07.25	Italy W - Spain W	1:3 ✺
07.07.25	Portugal W - Italy W	1:1 ✺
03.07.25	Belgium W - Italy W	0:1 ✺
UEFA Nations League Women
03.06.25	Wales W - Italy W	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Friendly International Women
27.02.24	Italy W - England W	1:5
Arnold Clark Cup Women
19.02.23	England W - Italy W	2:1
Friendly International Women
07.04.17	England W - Italy W	1:1

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