Match Info

Euro Women - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 16 July 2025, Wednesday

Location: Stade de Genève (Geneva)

Referee: Frappart S. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport App, Sporty TV, StarTimes App, SuperSport Football, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Maximo 360
Albania	RTSH Sport
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	Optus Sport
Austria	ORF 1, ORF On, Sky Go Austria
Belgium	BNT News App, RTBF Auvio Direct, RTBF Tipik, VRT Canvas
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	BHT 1
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV
Bulgaria	BNT 1, BNT 3
Canada	TSN 1, TSN 4, TSN+
Colombia	ESPN 3
Croatia	HRT 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	RIK 2
Czech-republic	CT sport
Denmark	TV3, Viaplay
Estonia	ETV 2
Finland	YLE Areena, YLE TV2
France	France 3, Free, Molotov TV, TMC
Georgia	1TV, 1TV Player
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	ERT 2
Hong-kong	HOY TV
Hungary	M4 Sport
Iceland	RUV
India	FanCode, FanCode
Ireland	RTE 2, RTE Player
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	RAI 2, RaiPlay, RAI Sport, RAI Sport+
Kosovo	RTK 1
Lithuania	LRT Plius
Malta	TVM+, TVM Sport+
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
Moldova	TVR Moldova
Netherlands	Canal+, NPO 1, Sporza
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 1
North-central-america	ESPN Norte
North-macedonia	MRT 1
Norway	TV2, TV2 Play
Peru	Disney+
Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app, TVP Sport
Portugal	Sport TV1
Romania	TVR+, TVR Sport
Serbia	RTS 2
Slovakia	STVR Sport
Slovenia	Slovenia TV2
South-africa	SuperSport Football, Supersport Maximo 1
South-america	ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Spain	RTVE Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Play RTS, Play RTS, RSI La 2, RTS 2, RTS 2, RTS Sport, RTS Sport, SRF 2, SRF 2, SRF Play, SRF Play, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	Tabii, TRT Spor
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine, Suspilne Sport
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, BBC One, BBC Radio 5 Live, BBC Sport app, BBC Sport
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	FOX Network, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
World	Sport 24


	Norway W		Italy W

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.2	2.6
	2.85	3.2	2.45
	2.88	3.15	2.52
	2.86	3.33	2.62
				Watch
	3	3	2.4
	2.69	3.22	2.74
	2.45	3.32	2.91
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.79 ↑ (2.5)	3.2 ↓ (3.39)	2.61 ↓ (2.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Norway W
34%

Draw
29.6%

Italy W
36.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

28.6%

32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.6%

29.5%

33.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Norway W has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Italy W has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Norway W than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Italy W than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.5%	55.9%	20.6%

Norway W - Italy W Predictions

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. Norway will win (votes: 8 - 23.5%). Italy will win (votes: 7 - 20.6%). It will Tie (votes: 19 - 55.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 39.2% – 72.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Norway (votes: 4 - 23.5%). Italy (votes: 1 - 5.9%). Tie (votes: 12 - 70.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Norway (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Norway (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Norway (2.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Italy (1.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 21 Selected Experts predict this event. Norway (votes: 7 - 33.3%). Italy (votes: 2 - 9.5%). Tie (votes: 12 - 57.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fiskerstrand C. (G) Fiorentina 13. Bjelde T. Valerenga 6. Mjelde M. Everton 4. Hansen T. Bayern Munich 11. Reiten G. Chelsea 21. Naalsund L. Manchester United 18. Leonhardsen-Maanum F. Arsenal 7. Engen I. Lyon 10. Graham C. Barcelona 14. Hegerberg A. (C) Lyon 22. Gaupset S. Brann	1. Giuliani L. (G) AC Milan 3. Di Guglielmo L. AS Roma 23. Salvai C. Juventus 5. Linari E. AS Roma 2. Oliviero E. Lazio 18. Caruso A. Bayern Munich 6. Giugliano M. AS Roma 8. Severini E. Fiorentina 11. Bonansea B. Juventus 10. Girelli C. (C) Juventus 7. Cantore S. Washington Spirit
Substitutes
8. Boe Risa V. Atl. Madrid 16. Harviken M. Juventus 17. Ildhusoy C. Manchester United 20. Jensen S. Atl. Madrid 15. Kielland J. Wolfsburg 23. Mikalsen A. (G) Koln 5. Ostenstad M. Brann 12. Panengstuen S. (G) Brann 9. Saevik K. Valerenga 19. Terland E. Manchester United 3. Woldvik E. Rosengard	12. Baldi R. (G) 14. Bergamaschi V. Juventus 17. Boattin L. Juventus 21. Cambiaghi M. Juventus 22. Durante F. (G) Inter 16. Goldoni E. Lazio 20. Greggi G. AS Roma 19. Lenzini M. Juventus 9. Piemonte M. Lazio 13. Piga J. AC Milan 4. Schatzer E. Juventus 15. Serturini A. Inter
Coaches
Grainger G.	Soncin A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Naalsund L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
50', 0 - 1, Girelli C. ⚽, Cantore S. (A),
58', Linari E. 🟨,
59', Soncin A. 🟨,
60', Hegerberg A. (Pen),
64', Leonhardsen-Maanum F. ↓, Terland E. ↑,
66', 1 - 1, Hegerberg A. ⚽, Mjelde M. (A),
77', Severini E. ↓, Greggi G. ↑,
77', Bonansea B. ↓, Cambiaghi M. ↑,
87', Bjelde T. ↓, Woldvik E. ↑,
90', 1 - 2, Girelli C. ⚽, Cantore S. (A),
90+2', Cantore S. ↓, Lenzini M. ↑,
90+2', Girelli C. ↓, Piemonte M. ↑,

Preview

Norway is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Italy has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Norway won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Norway W
UEFA Euro Women
10.07.25	Norway W - Iceland W	4:3 ✺
06.07.25	Norway W - Finland W	2:1 ✺
02.07.25	Switzerland W - Norway W	1:2 ✺
Friendly International Women
26.06.25	Norway W - Sweden W	0:2 ✺
UEFA Nations League Women
03.06.25	Switzerland W - Norway W	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWWLW
- Italy W
UEFA Euro Women
11.07.25	Italy W - Spain W	1:3 ✺
07.07.25	Portugal W - Italy W	1:1 ✺
03.07.25	Belgium W - Italy W	0:1 ✺
UEFA Nations League Women
03.06.25	Wales W - Italy W	1:4 ✺
30.05.25	Italy W - Sweden W	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LTWWT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Euro Women
04.06.24	Italy W - Norway W	1:1
31.05.24	Norway W - Italy W	0:0
Algarve Cup Women
20.02.22	Italy W - Norway W	2:1

Norway W - Italy W: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide