Match Info

1. Lig - Round 8

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Esenler Stadium (Istanbul)

Referee: Sen A. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Sports MENA Max 2, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2 MAX, TRT Avaz


	Erokspor		Fatih Karagümrükspor

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.30	4.00	Watch
	1.88	3.30	3.50
	1.91	3.35	3.40	Watch
	1.91	3.66	4.21
	2.03	3.51	3.43	Watch
	1.82	3.60	4.15
	1.89	3.39	4.11
	1.89	3.40	3.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 (1.9)	3.44 ↓ (3.64)	3.8 ↑ (3.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Erokspor
48.8%

Draw
26.9%

Fatih Karagümrükspor
24.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.9%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.5%

25.3%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Erokspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Fatih Karagümrükspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Erokspor than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fatih Karagümrükspor than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Erokspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Karagümrük (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Canpolat E. (G) 77. Bilazer H. 21. Ozturk B. (C) 14. Ulas O. 33. Alic E. 17. Coban B. 7. Janvier N. 5. Okyar M. 8. Kanga G. 39. Kas E. 18. Samudio B.	1. Silvestri M. (G) 25. Sarikaya M. 4. Biraschi D. (C) 28. Cinar A. 33. Kurukalip C. 22. Civelek R. 20. Siopis M. 26. Ahmed T. 5. Akbaba E. 9. Tosun C. 72. Pesic A.
Substitutes
20. Buljubasic M. 34. Cetin E. (G) 67. Demir D. (G) 6. Kacar T. 4. Luccas Claro 70. Orak F. 52. Ozyurt Y. 27. Yazgan F.	21. Baskale C. 11. Cukur T. 14. Doh M. 24. Ersoy B. 3. Nukan A. 19. Onogo Y. 23. Sen B. (G) 8. Tokoz D. 10. Verde D. 6. Yalcin R.
Coaches
Karaman H.	Stanojevic A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', Okyar M. 🟨,
23', Kanga G. 🟨,
39', 0 - 1, Ozturk B. (Own goal),
45+2', Akbaba E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Bilazer H. ↓, Orak F. ↑,
46', Ulas O. ↓, Luccas Claro ↑,
53', Ahmed T. 🟨,
57', Tosun C. ↓, Tokoz D. ↑,
64', Civelek R. ↓, Cukur T. ↑,
77', Alic E. ↓, Kacar T. ↑,
81', Akbaba E. ↓, Onogo Y. ↑,
81', Pesic A. ↓, Verde D. ↑,
84', Janvier N. ↓, Ozyurt Y. ↑,
86', Stanojevic A. 🟥,
89', Okyar M. ↓, Yazgan F. ↑,
90+4', 0 - 2, Ahmed T. ⚽, Cukur T. (A),

Preview

A team fighting near the bottom hosts a mid-table side in a match full of urgency (ranked 18th in the Relegation and 11th).

Erokspor is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Performances by Karagümrük have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Erokspor holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Erokspor has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 7:7 (averaging 1.8:1.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Erokspor against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 4:6 goals (averaging 2:3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Karagumruk	8	3	3	2	12:11	1	12
17	Erokspor	8	0	5	3	4:10	-6	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Erokspor
Turkish First League
13.09.26	Bursaspor - Erokspor	2:2 ✺
07.09.26	Erokspor - Kayserispor	0:3 ✺
03.09.26	Bodrumspor - Erokspor	0:0 ✺
30.08.26	Erokspor - Igdirspor	0:1 ✺
22.08.26	Umraniyespor - Erokspor	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 TLTLT
- Fatih Karagümrükspor
Turkish First League
13.09.26	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Manisa FK	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Batman Petrolspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	4:3 ✺
02.09.26	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Kayserispor	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	İstanbulspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	1:1 ✺
21.08.26	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Bursaspor	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Cup
03.12.25	Erokspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	2:5
Turkish First League
09.04.25	Erokspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	2:1
01.12.24	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Erokspor	1:0
Turkish Cup
24.11.20	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Erokspor	0:3

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