Match Info

Regionalliga Nordost - Round 11

Date: 27 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Erzgebirgsstadion (Aue)


	Erzgebirge Aue		Chemie Leipzig

	1	X	2
	1.52	3.95	5.1
	1.51	4.1	4.65
	1.55	4.21	4.91
	1.53	3.95	5.1
	1.53	4	4.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↑ (1.52)	4.04 ↑ (3.9)	4.92 ↓ (5.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Erzgebirge Aue
59.2%

Draw
22.4%

Chemie Leipzig
18.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.2%

23%

17.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.7%

22.1%

17.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Erzgebirge Aue have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Chemie Leipzig has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chemie Leipzig than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Erzgebirge Aue - Chemie Leipzig Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', 1 - 0, Maciejewski T. ⚽,
16', 1 - 1, Sanin R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
68', 1 - 2, Hoffmann J. ⚽,

Preview

This match features one of the top teams against an opponent battling near the bottom (ranked 6th and 15th).

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Chemie Leipzig may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this matchup, Aue is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Aue has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Aue	11	6	3	2	20:16	4	21
14	Chemie Leipzig	11	2	3	6	12:17	-5	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Erzgebirge Aue
German Regionalliga Nordost
19.09.26	Rot-Weiß Erfurt - Erzgebirge Aue	2:2 ✺
16.09.26	Magdeburg II - Erzgebirge Aue	1:2
12.09.26	Erzgebirge Aue - Luckenwalde	2:1 ✺
26.08.26	Erzgebirge Aue - Hertha Berlin II	0:0
German DFB Pokal
22.08.26	Erzgebirge Aue - Hoffenheim	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TWWTL
- Chemie Leipzig
German Regionalliga Nordost
20.09.26	Chemie Leipzig - Chemnitzer	1:3 ✺
16.09.26	Tasmania Berlin - Chemie Leipzig	2:5 ✺
12.09.26	Chemie Leipzig - Zwickau	2:2 ✺
28.08.26	Altglienicke - Chemie Leipzig	1:1 ✺
25.08.26	Magdeburg II - Chemie Leipzig	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 LWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
22.07.23	Chemie Leipzig - Erzgebirge Aue	0:1

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