Match Info

3. Liga - Round 3

Date: 24 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Erzgebirgsstadion (Aue)

Referee: Besong J. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 6
Germany	Magenta Sport
Slovenia	SportKlub 3


	Erzgebirge Aue		TSV Havelse

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.8	3.9	Watch
	1.62	4.1	4.75
	1.58	4.15	4.85
	1.88	3.79	4.26
	2.75	3.82	2.22	Watch
	1.62	3.75	4.75
	1.81	3.82	3.92	Watch
	1.58	4	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↑ (1.61)	3.9 ↓ (3.98)	4.21 ↓ (4.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Erzgebirge Aue
52.5%

Draw
24.6%

TSV Havelse
22.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.8%

23.4%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.7%

22.3%

17.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Erzgebirge Aue has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Erzgebirge Aue's form might have worsened.

TSV Havelse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Erzgebirge Aue, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for TSV Havelse than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for TSV Havelse, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	10%	30%

Erzgebirge Aue - TSV Havelse Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Aue will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Havelse will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aue: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Aue (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mannel M. (G) 23. Barylla A. 16. Malone R. 25. Zobel T. 20. Fabisch J. 11. Uhlmann E. 17. Fallmann P. 10. Gunther-Schmidt J. 34. Stefaniak M. 30. Seiffert M. 24. Ehlers J.	1. Opitz T. (G) 5. Minz D. 24. Plume N. 4. Kolgeci B. 39. Riedel F. 31. Oltrogge J. 7. Aytun E. 19. Boujellab N. 10. Duker J. (C) 14. Ilic M. 17. Posselt J. X.
Substitutes
8. Clausen M. 27. Hetzsch F. 22. Lord L. (G) 13. Majetschak E. 39. Schmid M. 37. Seidel P. 5. Simnica L. 7. Weinhauer E.	8. Berger J. 40. Busse J. (G) 30. Friedrich T. 23. Muller R. 9. Paldino L. 33. Rexhepi A. 28. Rufidis J. 3. Schleef M. 22. Sommer L.
Coaches
Hartel J.	Ferchichi S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Posselt J. X. ⚽, Kolgeci B. (A),
22', Fabisch J. 🟨,
27', Fallmann P. 🟨,
29', Boujellab N. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
55', Riedel F. 🟨,
63', Seiffert M. ↓, Clausen M. ↑,
63', Fabisch J. ↓, Simnica L. ↑,
63', Gunther-Schmidt J. ↓, Schmid M. ↑,
64', Posselt J. X. ↓, Muller R. ↑,
66', 1 - 1, Simnica L. ⚽, Fallmann P. (A),
77', Ilic M. ↓, Paldino L. ↑,
78', Barylla A. ↓, Majetschak E. ↑,
83', 2 - 1, Uhlmann E. ⚽, Fallmann P. (A),
84', Kolgeci B. ↓, Rexhepi A. ↑,
86', Malone R. 🟨,
88', Zobel T. 🟨,
90+1', Ehlers J. ↓, Seidel P. ↑,
90+3', Oltrogge J. 🟨,

Preview

Aue has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Havelse's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Aue is the team to beat.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Erzgebirge Aue
German 3 Bundesliga
09.08.25	Ulm 1846 - Erzgebirge Aue	1:0 ✺
03.08.25	Erzgebirge Aue - Hansa Rostock	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
18.07.25	Erzgebirge Aue - Borussia Mönchengladbach	0:3 ✺
11.07.25	Bayreuth - Erzgebirge Aue	2:4 ✺
05.07.25	Glenavon - Erzgebirge Aue	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LTLWW
- TSV Havelse
German 3 Bundesliga
09.08.25	TSV Havelse - Rot-Weiß Essen	1:1 ✺
02.08.25	Hoffenheim II - TSV Havelse	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
10.07.25	Arminia Bielefeld - TSV Havelse	7:1 ✺
08.07.25	Hertha Berlin - TSV Havelse	3:2 ✺
04.07.25	TSV Havelse - Rot-Weiß Oberhausen	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 TTLLL

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