Match Info

3. Liga - Round 5

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Erzgebirgsstadion (Aue)

Referee: Ballweg C. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	Magenta Sport, MDR Fernsehen


	Erzgebirge Aue		Viktoria Köln

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.5	3.1	Watch
	2.3	3.5	2.85
	2.15	3.4	3.05
	2.27	3.54	3.11
	2.19	3.56	2.95	Watch
	2.14	3.48	3.18	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↓ (2.37)	3.5 ↑ (3.43)	3.04 ↑ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Erzgebirge Aue
42.4%

Draw
26.8%

Viktoria Köln
30.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.7%

26.8%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.5%

26.3%

33.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Erzgebirge Aue has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Viktoria Köln has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Viktoria Köln than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	0%	28.6%

Erzgebirge Aue - Viktoria Köln Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Aue will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Viktoria Köln will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Aue (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mannel M. (C) 17. Fallmann P. 16. Malone R. 25. Zobel T. 23. Barylla A. 20. Fabisch J. 11. Uhlmann E. 8. Clausen M. 19. Guttau J. 34. Stefaniak M. 39. Schmid M.	1. Dudu (G) 18. Kloss T. 15. Greger C. (C) 22. Boboy V. 34. Ronstadt F. 6. Eisenhuth T. 5. Munst L. 7. Handle S. 30. Tonye Y. 11. Velasco R. 10. Otto D.
Substitutes
24. Ehlers J. 10. Gunther-Schmidt J. 27. Hetzsch F. 22. Lord L. (G) 13. Majetschak E. 37. Seidel P. 5. Simnica L. 7. Weinhauer E.	3. Agyekum J. 38. Carella S. 8. Engelhardt F. 41. Kozuki S. 14. Ott R. 27. Schulz A. (G) 19. Sponsel M. 21. Wolf L. M. 23. Zank B.
Coaches
Hartel J.	Wilhelm M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
19', 0 - 1, Munst L. ⚽, Otto D. (A),
44', 0 - 2, Kloss T. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Clausen M. ↓, Ehlers J. ↑,
59', Uhlmann E. 🟨,
60', Velasco R. ↓, Kozuki S. ↑,
60', Ronstadt F. ↓, Sponsel M. ↑,
67', Uhlmann E. ↓, Simnica L. ↑,
67', Fallmann P. ↓, Gunther-Schmidt J. ↑,
71', Tonye Y. ↓, Agyekum J. ↑,
73', Eisenhuth T. 🟨,
77', Fabisch J. 🟨,
78', Guttau J. ↓, Weinhauer E. ↑,
78', Schmid M. ↓, Majetschak E. ↑,
86', Kloss T. ↓, Engelhardt F. ↑,
86', Otto D. ↓, Zank B. ↑,
86', 0 - 3, Zank B. ⚽, Sponsel M. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aue won 2.

Aue is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Viktoria Köln has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Aue may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Aue won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:10. (average 1.2:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Aue won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Erzgebirge Aue
German 3 Bundesliga
30.08.25	Saarbrücken - Erzgebirge Aue	4:1 ✺
24.08.25	Erzgebirge Aue - TSV Havelse	2:1 ✺
09.08.25	Ulm 1846 - Erzgebirge Aue	1:0 ✺
03.08.25	Erzgebirge Aue - Hansa Rostock	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
18.07.25	Erzgebirge Aue - Borussia Mönchengladbach	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LWLTL
- Viktoria Köln
German 3 Bundesliga
29.08.25	Viktoria Köln - Jahn Regensburg	1:0 ✺
24.08.25	Waldhof Mannheim - Viktoria Köln	2:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
17.08.25	Viktoria Köln - Paderborn	1:3 ✺
German 3 Bundesliga
09.08.25	Saarbrücken - Viktoria Köln	2:1 ✺
03.08.25	Viktoria Köln - Schweinfurt	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
09.03.25	Erzgebirge Aue - Viktoria Köln	2:1
28.09.24	Viktoria Köln - Erzgebirge Aue	2:0
16.03.24	Erzgebirge Aue - Viktoria Köln	2:1
14.10.23	Viktoria Köln - Erzgebirge Aue	2:2
29.04.23	Erzgebirge Aue - Viktoria Köln	1:1
05.11.22	Viktoria Köln - Erzgebirge Aue	3:0

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