Match Info

3. Liga - Round 4

Date: 30 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Ludwigspark Stadion (Saarbrücken)

Referee: Exuzidis L. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 8
Germany	Magenta Sport, MDR Fernsehen, SR Fernsehen, SWR Fernsehen
Serbia	SportKlub 8
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV


	Saarbrücken		Erzgebirge Aue

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.9	3.9	Watch
	1.82	3.75	3.9
	1.8	3.8	3.8
	1.86	4.09	3.9
	1.82	3.87	3.73	Watch
	1.85	3.5	3.6
	1.84	3.75	3.67	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↓ (1.86)	3.81 ↓ (3.93)	3.79 ↑ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Saarbrücken
51.1%

Draw
24.4%

Erzgebirge Aue
24.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.9%

23.6%

26.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.1%

23%

25.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Saarbrücken has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Erzgebirge Aue has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

The ML Model estimate for Saarbrücken aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Saarbrücken - Erzgebirge Aue Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Saarbrücken will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Saarbrücken (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Menzel P. (G) 18. Wilhelm L. 4. Sonnenberg S. (C) 27. Bichsel J. 7. Rizzuto C. 5. Krahn E. 33. Schumacher T. 17. Elongo-Yombo R. 20. Pick F. 10. Rabihic K. 9. Brunker K.	1. Mannel M. (G) 13. Majetschak E. 16. Malone R. 25. Zobel T. 5. Simnica L. 11. Uhlmann E. 17. Fallmann P. 10. Gunther-Schmidt J. 34. Stefaniak M. 24. Ehlers J. 7. Weinhauer E.
Substitutes
30. Baumann D. 32. Bormuth R. 28. Bretschneider N. 23. Civeja T. 2. Fahrner P. 1. Paterok T. (G) 39. Schmidt P. 24. Wollschlager L. 8. Zeitz M.	23. Barylla A. 8. Clausen M. 19. Guttau J. 27. Hetzsch F. 22. Lord L. (G) 39. Schmid M. 37. Seidel P. 30. Seiffert M.
Coaches
Schwartz A.	Hartel J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
28', Krahn E. 🟨,
33', 1 - 0, Brunker K. ⚽, Pick F. (A),
34', 2 - 0, Pick F. ⚽, Elongo-Yombo R. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Weinhauer E. ↓, Schmid M. ↑,
46', Majetschak E. ↓, Clausen M. ↑,
50', Rizzuto C. 🟨,
63', Uhlmann E. 🟨,
64', Brunker K. 🟨,
69', Pick F. 🟨,
69', Mannel M. 🟨,
71', Fallmann P. ↓, Barylla A. ↑,
71', Gunther-Schmidt J. ↓, Guttau J. ↑,
74', Krahn E. ↓, Zeitz M. ↑,
74', Rizzuto C. ↓, Fahrner P. ↑,
77', 2 - 1, Schmid M. ⚽, Simnica L. (A),
82', Clausen M. 🟨,
85', 3 - 1, Pick F. ⚽, Elongo-Yombo R. (A),
86', Simnica L. ↓, Seiffert M. ↑,
89', 4 - 1, Elongo-Yombo R. ⚽, Pick F. (A),
90', Pick F. ↓, Civeja T. ↑,
90+3', Elongo-Yombo R. ↓, Wollschlager L. ↑,
90+3', Brunker K. ↓, Schmidt P. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Saarbrücken won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Saarbrücken is seen as the favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Saarbrücken won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Saarbrücken won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 1.3:0).

Last Results with these Odds

Saarbrücken - the odds 1.86 are the expected chance of winning is 49.94%, but this team recently wins 73% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- 1. FC Saarbrücken
German 3 Bundesliga
23.08.25	Osnabrück - Saarbrücken	2:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
15.08.25	Saarbrücken - Magdeburg	1:3 ✺
German 3 Bundesliga
09.08.25	Saarbrücken - Viktoria Köln	2:1 ✺
02.08.25	Energie Cottbus - Saarbrücken	3:3 ✺
Club Friendly
20.07.25	Pétange - Saarbrücken	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 LLWTW
- Erzgebirge Aue
German 3 Bundesliga
24.08.25	Erzgebirge Aue - TSV Havelse	2:1 ✺
09.08.25	Ulm 1846 - Erzgebirge Aue	1:0 ✺
03.08.25	Erzgebirge Aue - Hansa Rostock	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
18.07.25	Erzgebirge Aue - Borussia Mönchengladbach	0:3 ✺
11.07.25	Bayreuth - Erzgebirge Aue	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
08.04.25	Saarbrücken - Erzgebirge Aue	2:0
02.11.24	Erzgebirge Aue - Saarbrücken	1:1
09.03.24	Saarbrücken - Erzgebirge Aue	2:0
07.10.23	Erzgebirge Aue - Saarbrücken	2:0
26.02.23	Erzgebirge Aue - Saarbrücken	2:1
20.08.22	Saarbrücken - Erzgebirge Aue	0:0

Upcoming Matches