Match Info

Date: 26 January 2021, Tuesday


	Erzgebirge Aue		Würzburger Kickers

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.4	3.3	Watch
	2.2	3.4	3.3	Watch
	2.18	3.4	3.25
	2.09	3.3	3.45
	2.24	3.48	3.39
	2.15	3.25	3.4	Watch
	2.17	3.4	3.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↑ (2.05)	3.38 ↓ (3.56)	3.36 ↓ (3.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Erzgebirge Aue
43.7%

Draw
28.1%

Würzburger Kickers
28.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.1%

26.5%

27.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.7%

20.1%

20.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Erzgebirge Aue has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Würzburger Kickers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (+17%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Erzgebirge Aue, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Würzburger Kickers than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Würzburger Kickers, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.2%	2.9%	7.8%

Erzgebirge Aue - Würzburger Kickers Predictions

Users Predictions: Erzgebirge Aue will win (91 of 102 users predict this - 89.22%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.2% – 95.24%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 9 and 18 in the zone Relegation to 3. Liga).

Aue has a very small chance of relegated (3%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Würzburger Kickers has a good chance of relegated (79%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Würzburger Kickers could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Aue will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Aue won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Aue won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Erzgebirge Aue
German 2 Bundesliga
22.01.21	Osnabrück - Erzgebirge Aue	0:1 ✺
16.01.21	Erzgebirge Aue - Fortuna Düsseldorf	0:3 ✺
10.01.21	Paderborn - Erzgebirge Aue	2:1 ✺
03.01.21	Erzgebirge Aue - Eintracht Braunschweig	3:1 ✺
20.12.20	Nürnberg - Erzgebirge Aue	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WLLWL
- Würzburger Kickers
German 2 Bundesliga
23.01.21	Paderborn - Würzburger Kickers	1:0 ✺
15.01.21	Würzburger Kickers - Eintracht Braunschweig	0:0 ✺
09.01.21	Osnabrück - Würzburger Kickers	2:3 ✺
06.01.21	Würzburger Kickers - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
02.01.21	Würzburger Kickers - Karlsruher	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LTWTL

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
19.09.20	Würzburger Kickers - Erzgebirge Aue	0:3
30.04.17	Erzgebirge Aue - Würzburger Kickers	3:1
25.11.16	Würzburger Kickers - Erzgebirge Aue	1:1
German 3 Bundesliga
14.02.16	Erzgebirge Aue - Würzburger Kickers	0:0
29.08.15	Würzburger Kickers - Erzgebirge Aue	1:0

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