Match Info

Turkish Cup - Round 4

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Kâzım Karabekir Stadyumu (Erzurum) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Austria	12:30	A Spor
Turkey	14:30	A Spor


	Erzurumspor		Keçiörengücü

	1	X	2
	1.27	5.25	7
	1.35	4.66	3.52
	1.33	5.19	7.57
	1.40	4.27	8.38	Watch
	1.91	3.3	3.4
	1.36	4.95	7.32	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.75)	4.6 ↑ (3.74)	6.2 ↑ (4.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Erzurumspor
64.8%

Draw
20.2%

Keçiörengücü
15%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

52.6%

24.5%

22.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.3%

23.7%

22.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Erzurumspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Erzurumspor's performance.

Keçiörengücü has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Keçiörengücü might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Erzurumspor than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Erzurumspor that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Keçiörengücü than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Keçiörengücü could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Erzurumspor - Keçiörengücü Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Erzurumspor (1.82) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1, 1st Half - Erzurumspor (2.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Erzurumspor will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Erzurumspor will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Erzurumspor (votes: 8 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Anapa E. (G) 2. Ulgen A. 16. Kabak A. 25. Kara O. 23. Bayrak C. 83. Onal M. 11. Akpinar M. 77. Keser B. 7. Sever I. 19. Fernando Andrade 9. Yener H.	27. Kucuksolak E. (G) 92. Yuksel H. 16. Ozalp O. 29. Ustun C. 67. Acet M. 79. Duman A. 32. Poyraz E. 28. Yilmaz E. 65. Celik M. 70. Diaby O. 82. Mintemur E.
Substitutes
88. Bayrak M. 28. Billor M. 97. Igit M. 55. Karaoglan Y. 98. Moradaoglu K. (G) 17. Sarikaya S. 29. Sylla C.	63. Baytop A. 46. Birer M. Y. 38. Bolat M. 24. Ersu E. (G) 50. Gulec B. 89. Ocaklar M. 62. Ozdas B. 33. Sekerci M. 43. Seker K. 61. Tahiroglu M.
Coaches
Ozbalta S.	Kosukavak Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
3', 1 - 0, Yener H. ⚽, Keser B. (A),
10', Mintemur E. 🟨,
35', 1 - 1, Yilmaz E. (Penalty Awarded),
45+1', 1 - 2, Celik M. ⚽, Mintemur E. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Keser B. ↓, Sylla C. ↑,
46', Ulgen A. ↓, Sarikaya S. ↑,
49', 2 - 2, Sylla C. ⚽, Sever I. (A),
55', Celik M. ↓, Ozdas B. ↑,
57', Kabak A. 🟨,
57', Kabak A. ↓, Karaoglan Y. ↑,
73', Mintemur E. ↓, Ocaklar M. ↑,
79', 3 - 2, Sever I. ⚽, Akpinar M. (A),
81', Yuksel H. ↓, Tahiroglu M. ↑,
81', Poyraz E. ↓, Sekerci M. ↑,
81', Acet M. ↓, Birer M. Y. ↑,
88', Fernando Andrade ↓, Bayrak M. ↑,
88', Sever I. ↓, Billor M. ↑,
90+3', 4 - 2, Billor M. ⚽, Bayrak C. (A),

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 6 and 7)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Erzurumspor won 4.

Erzurumspor is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Keçiörengücü has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Erzurumspor has had a series of away games.

In this match, Erzurumspor is a strong favorite.

We predict that Erzurumspor will win today's game, with odds of 1.74.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Erzurumspor won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 26:19. (average 1.7:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Erzurumspor won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:9. (average 1.5:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Erzurumspor
Turkish First League
28.02.26	Vanspor - Erzurumspor	0:3 ✺
22.02.26	Erzurumspor - Serik Belediyespor	4:0 ✺
18.02.26	Keçiörengücü - Erzurumspor	1:2 ✺
09.02.26	Sakaryaspor - Erzurumspor	0:1 ✺
Turkish Cup
05.02.26	Fenerbahçe - Erzurumspor	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WWWWL
- Keçiörengücü
Turkish First League
28.02.26	Keçiörengücü - Amed SK	2:2 ✺
23.02.26	Pendikspor - Keçiörengücü	0:1 ✺
18.02.26	Keçiörengücü - Erzurumspor	1:2 ✺
14.02.26	Bodrumspor - Keçiörengücü	4:3 ✺
08.02.26	Keçiörengücü - Bandırmaspor	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 TWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish First League
18.02.26	Keçiörengücü - Erzurumspor	1:2
24.09.25	Erzurumspor - Keçiörengücü	1:1
10.03.25	Keçiörengücü - Erzurumspor	1:3
27.10.24	Erzurumspor - Keçiörengücü	4:0
10.03.24	Keçiörengücü - Erzurumspor	0:2
21.10.23	Erzurumspor - Keçiörengücü	0:1
08.03.23	Erzurumspor - Keçiörengücü	0:1

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