Match Info

1. Lig - Round 29

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Kâzım Karabekir Stadyumu (Erzurum)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1 MAX, Tabii, TRT Spor


	Erzurumspor		Manisa FK

	1	X	2
	1.38	4.33	7.5	Watch
	1.42	4.1	6
	1.35	4.32	8.44	Watch
	1.39	4.8	8.88
	1.4	4.49	7.42	Watch
	1.36	4.33	8
	1.36	4.25	7.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.61)	4.37 ↑ (3.85)	7.72 ↑ (4.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Erzurumspor
66.9%

Draw
21.1%

Manisa FK
12%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.4%

24%

18.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.2%

23.3%

17.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Erzurumspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Erzurumspor's performance.

Manisa FK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Manisa FK might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Erzurumspor than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Erzurumspor that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Manisa FK than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Manisa FK could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Erzurumspor - Manisa FK Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 1st Half - Erzurumspor (2.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Erzurumspor will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Erzurumspor will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Erzurumspor (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Orbanic M. (G) 53. Ovacikli O. 4. Gerxhaliu A. 25. Kara O. 15. Giorbelidze G. 6. Baiye B. 99. Fettahoglu M. 24. Crociata G. 8. Akgun S. 65. Rodriguez M. 10. Tozlu E. (C)	22. Bodur S. (G) 45. Karapo A. 4. Herelle C. 8. Sonmez K. 19. Erdem U. 11. Adekanye B. 13. Ibik A. 10. Lindseth J. 7. Vargas A. 20. Benrahou Y. 9. Diony L. (C)
Substitutes
11. Akpinar M. 1. Anapa E. (G) 23. Bayrak C. 19. Fernando Andrade 16. Kabak A. 77. Keser B. 7. Sever I. 29. Sylla C. 2. Ulgen A. 9. Yener H.	21. Akboga E. 99. Basar M. (G) 77. Can Aslan U. 25. Cissokho M. 80. Colak B. 24. Dursun Y. 17. Kahraman O. 23. Kiprit M. 65. Sen A. 29. Yurtdas O.
Coaches
Ozbalta S.	Pektas A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (5 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Tozlu E. ⚽,
8', 2 - 0, Tozlu E. ⚽, Akgun S. (A),
20', 3 - 0, Tozlu E. ⚽, Akgun S. (A),
28', 4 - 0, Rodriguez M. ⚽, Tozlu E. (A),
40', Vargas A. 🟨,
45+1', 5 - 0, Akgun S. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Adekanye B. ↓, Kiprit M. ↑,
46', Herelle C. ↓, Cissokho M. ↑,
55', Tozlu E. ↓, Keser B. ↑,
56', Rodriguez M. ↓, Sylla C. ↑,
56', Ovacikli O. ↓, Ulgen A. ↑,
61', Karapo A. ↓, Kahraman O. ↑,
61', Diony L. ↓, Can Aslan U. ↑,
65', Crociata G. ↓, Kabak A. ↑,
70', Benrahou Y. ↓, Sen A. ↑,
74', 5 - 1, Lindseth J. ⚽,
76', 6 - 1, Sylla C. ⚽, Giorbelidze G. (A),
83', 7 - 1, Fernando Andrade ⚽,
89', 8 - 1, Kabak A. ⚽,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Lig and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Erzurumspor won 2.

Erzurumspor has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In recent matches, Manisa has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Erzurumspor may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Erzurumspor is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Erzurumspor: Kirtay Y. (Yellow Cards) Ozhan F. (Suspended) Saglik S. (Inactive) Sasi F. (Inactive) Yigit E. (Suspended) Yumlu M. (Yellow Cards)

We predict that Erzurumspor will win today's game, with odds of 1.44.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Erzurumspor won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 0.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Erzurumspor won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 1:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Manisa FK	8	2	3	3	12:12	0	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Erzurumspor
Turkish Cup
04.03.26	Erzurumspor - Keçiörengücü	4:2 ✺
Turkish First League
28.02.26	Vanspor - Erzurumspor	0:3 ✺
22.02.26	Erzurumspor - Serik Belediyespor	4:0 ✺
18.02.26	Keçiörengücü - Erzurumspor	1:2 ✺
09.02.26	Sakaryaspor - Erzurumspor	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WWWWW
- Manisa FK
Turkish First League
02.03.26	Manisa FK - Çorum	0:1 ✺
22.02.26	Bodrumspor - Manisa FK	1:2 ✺
18.02.26	Manisa FK - Bandırmaspor	3:2 ✺
13.02.26	Erokspor - Manisa FK	3:1 ✺
08.02.26	Manisa FK - Boluspor	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish First League
18.10.25	Manisa FK - Erzurumspor	1:1
28.03.25	Erzurumspor - Manisa FK	1:0
10.11.24	Manisa FK - Erzurumspor	2:0
27.01.24	Manisa FK - Erzurumspor	0:2
25.08.23	Erzurumspor - Manisa FK	1:2
16.04.23	Erzurumspor - Manisa FK	1:3
19.11.22	Manisa FK - Erzurumspor	0:0

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