Match Info

1st Division - Round 10

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Blue Water Arena (Esbjerg) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Iriskic F. (Den)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Denmark	13:30	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	14:30	Viaplay
Norway	13:30	Viaplay
Sweden	13:30	Viaplay


	Esbjerg		Aalborg BK

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.5	2.35
	2.75	3.50	2.20
	2.7	3.6	2.35
	2.72	3.82	2.44
	2.85	3.69	2.26	Watch
	2.65	3.75	2.4
	2.92	3.52	2.26	Watch
	2.65	3.5	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 ↓ (2.76)	3.61 ↓ (3.71)	2.32 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Esbjerg
34%

Draw
25.8%

Aalborg BK
40.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

33.9%

25.3%

40.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

23.9%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Esbjerg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Aalborg BK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Esbjerg than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aalborg BK than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Esbjerg - Aalborg BK Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Esbjerg will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Aalborg will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lykke W. (G) 4. Tjornelund P. 25. Bjerge G. 5. Foss J. 19. Strand S. 8. Maden M. 24. Madsen G. 7. Strunck N. (C) 18. Hansen M. 80. Brajanac M. 9. Ampofo J.	22. De Boer R. (G) 16. Persyn T. 21. Sondergaard P. 33. Makolli E. 24. Arnorsson N. A. 17. Jasson A. (C) 14. Kubel M. 18. Tielemans M. 28. Moller V. 11. Normann K. 7. Adedeji J.
Substitutes
99. Ahmad A. 2. Aronsson F. 32. Blicher N. 10. Boesen O. 22. Hvidt B. 34. Jorgensen E. (G) 17. Lucena J. 39. Strandby N. 6. Vigen L.	26. Bonde M. 25. Borsting F. 40. Gronkjaer B. (G) 8. Hapnes A. 27. John K. 23. Kaasa M. 5. Nielsen M. 15. Olsson C. 30. Thomsen W.
Coaches
Norregaard H.	Hojer S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
7', 0 - 1, Foss J. (Own goal),
9', 1 - 1, Ampofo J. ⚽, Strunck N. (A),
26', 1 - 2, Kubel M. ⚽, Arnorsson N. A. (A),
39', 2 - 2, Brajanac M. ⚽, Ampofo J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
62', Hansen M. ↓, Boesen O. ↑,
62', Maden M. ↓, Ahmad A. ↑,
70', Tielemans M. ↓, Kaasa M. ↑,
70', Kubel M. ↓, Thomsen W. ↑,
76', Madsen G. ↓, Vigen L. ↑,
79', Persyn T. ↓, Borsting F. ↑,
85', Normann K. ↓, John K. ↑,
85', Moller V. ↓, Hapnes A. ↑,
88', Ampofo J. ↓, Strandby N. ↑,
89', 2 - 3, Kaasa M. ⚽, Thomsen W. (A),
90+2', 3 - 3, Vigen L. ⚽, Tjornelund P. (A),
90+4', Boesen O. 🟨,

Preview

A determined lower-tier side seeks an essential result against mid-table opposition (ranked 12th in the 1st Division (Relegation Group: ) and 5th in the Promotion - 1st Division (Promotion Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Esbjerg won 2.

Recent results have been tough for Esbjerg (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Aalborg has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 1 win).

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Esbjerg has recorded 7 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 25:28 (averaging 1.3:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Esbjerg against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with 16:17 goals (averaging 1.6:1.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Aalborg	12	3	5	4	15:17	-2	14
12	Esbjerg	12	2	4	6	15:23	-8	10

Outrights of Danish 1 Division for now

Aalborg: 2.49% Esbjerg: 0.84%

Last Results with these Odds

Aalborg BK - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 40.8%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Esbjerg fB
Danish 1 Division
19.09.26	AB Copenhagen - Esbjerg	3:0 ✺
Danish Landspokal Cup
15.09.26	Hellerup - Esbjerg	0:5 ✺
Danish 1 Division
12.09.26	Esbjerg - HB Køge	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Fredericia - Esbjerg	1:0 ✺
30.08.26	Esbjerg - Vendsyssel	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LWTLL
- Aalborg BK
Danish 1 Division
20.09.26	Aalborg BK - Vendsyssel	2:2 ✺
12.09.26	Hvidovre - Aalborg BK	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	AB Copenhagen - Aalborg BK	0:2 ✺
29.08.26	Aalborg BK - HB Køge	0:0 ✺
21.08.26	Hobro - Aalborg BK	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Danish 1 Division
21.03.26	Aalborg BK - Esbjerg	1:1
19.08.25	Esbjerg - Aalborg BK	1:0
Danish Landspokal Cup
30.10.24	Esbjerg - Aalborg BK	0:2
Club Friendly
30.06.21	Aalborg BK - Esbjerg	0:0
19.08.20	Esbjerg - Aalborg BK	2:1
Danish Superliga
31.05.20	Esbjerg - Aalborg BK	1:1
11.08.19	Aalborg BK - Esbjerg	4:0

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