Match Info

Persian Gulf Pro League - Round 26

Date: 11 April 2025, Friday

Location: Ghadir Stadium (Ahvaz)


	Esteghlal Khuzestan		Havadar

	1	X	2
	2.05	2.95	3.7
	1.55	3.4	5.9
	1.59	3.32	6.41	Watch
	1.8	3	4.3
	1.62	3.44	6.25
	1.55	3.4	5.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↓ (2.05)	3.25 ↑ (3.03)	5.41 ↑ (3.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Esteghlal Khuzestan
54.5%

Draw
28.4%

Havadar
17.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

30.5%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.8%

30%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Esteghlal Khuzestan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Esteghlal Khuzestan's performance.

Havadar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Havadar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Esteghlal Khuzestan than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Esteghlal Khuzestan that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Havadar than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Havadar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	18.2%	0%

Esteghlal Khuzestan - Havadar Predictions

Users Predictions: Esteghlal Khuzestan will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Esteghlal Khuzestan will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Gohari A. (G) 3. Abbasi A. 88. Babaei E. 11. Barani B. 23. Bifouma T. 4. Helichi A. 5. Hosseini S. M. 9. Kaina 6. Motlaghzadeh M. 70. Pasandideh S. 10. Savio Roberto	12. Shakouri A. (G) 7. Ahmadi M. 26. Champness J. 98. Dindari M. 4. Haghdoost M. 66. Khodaei M. 8. Masoumi M. E. 23. Millar M. 6. Mohebi S. 44. Sattari M. 11. Shojaeian D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
52', 0 - 1, Shojaeian D. ⚽,
61', Helichi A. 🟨,
63', Ahmadi M. ↓, Rahmani E. ↑,
63', Shojaeian D. ↓, Eslami K. ↑,
65', Savio Roberto ↓, Mohkamkar A. ↑,
65', Barani B. ↓, Bahiraei H. ↑,
71', Khodaei M. 🟨,
72', Motlaghzadeh M. (Pen),
79', Helichi A. ↓, Arghand A. ↑,
88', Motlaghzadeh M. ↓, Baghaki S. D. ↑,
90+5', 1 - 1, Kaina ⚽,

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 10 and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Azadegan League).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Esteghlal Khuzestan won 2.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Esteghlal Khuzestan will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Esteghlal Khuzestan won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7:6 (average 1:0.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Esteghlal Khuzestan won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:3 (average 1.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Esteghlal Khuzestan
Iran Pro League
05.04.25	Persepolis - Esteghlal Khuzestan	0:0 ✺
29.03.25	Esteghlal Khuzestan - Nassaji Mazandaran	2:0 ✺
14.03.25	Mes Rafsanjan - Esteghlal Khuzestan	0:0 ✺
06.03.25	Sepahan - Esteghlal Khuzestan	1:1 ✺
27.02.25	Esteghlal Khuzestan - Malavan	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19 TWTTL
- Havadar SC
Iran Pro League
05.04.25	Havadar - Malavan	2:0 ✺
30.03.25	Chadormalou Ardakan - Havadar	1:2 ✺
13.03.25	Havadar - Shams Azar Qazvin	2:3 ✺
28.02.25	Havadar - Gol Gohar Sirjan	0:1 ✺
21.02.25	Foolad Khuzestan - Havadar	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.6 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Iran Pro League
02.12.24	Havadar - Esteghlal Khuzestan	0:1
01.06.24	Esteghlal Khuzestan - Havadar	3:1
31.12.23	Havadar - Esteghlal Khuzestan	2:0
Iran Division 1
08.06.21	Esteghlal Khuzestan - Havadar	1:1
25.01.21	Havadar - Esteghlal Khuzestan	1:0
30.06.20	Havadar - Esteghlal Khuzestan	0:1
30.10.19	Esteghlal Khuzestan - Havadar	1:1

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