What is the expert prediction for Ethiopia vs Malawi?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Ethiopia vs Malawi. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Ethiopia vs Malawi Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Tuesday, June 09, 2026)

Match Info

Friendly International

Date: 9 June 2026, Tuesday

Location: Dire Dawa Stadium (Dire Dawa)


	Ethiopia		Malawi

	1	X	2
	2.50	3.00	2.90
	2.60	2.80	2.70
	2.64	2.90	2.89	Watch
	2.77	3.11	2.96	Watch
	2.30	3.05	2.73
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↑ (2.32)	2.97 ↓ (3.1)	2.84 ↑ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ethiopia
36.2%

Draw
31.2%

Malawi
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.2%

28.6%

33.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ethiopia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Malawi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	42.9%	0%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: Ethiopia will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 44.94% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
	16. Thole W. (G)
	18. Adepoju B. Big Bullets
	14. Blessings S. Mighty Wanderers FC
	5. Chembezi D. Al-Qassim
	19. Chirwa G. Mighty Wanderers FC
	2. Lameck M. Silver Strikers
	11. Mphasi C. Power Dynamos
	7. Mpinganjira W. Associacao Black Bulls
	8. Njaliwa L. Costa do Sol
	20. Nyirenda E. Mighty Wanderers FC
	3. Petro C. (C) FC Botosani
Substitutes
	6. Aaron L. Muaither SC
	1. Chikooka G. (G) Silver Strikers
	15. Duwe F. Silver Strikers
	4. Jaziya W.
	24. Kondowe E. Big Bullets
	9. Kumwembe C. Green Buffaloes FC
	10. Madinga F. Mighty Wanderers FC
	12. Rundles L.
	17. Singo Y. Golden Arrows
	23. Waka J. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
19', 0 - 1, Adepoju B. ⚽,
42', 1 - 1, Belay B. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Ethiopia is ranked FIFA: 144. Malawi is ranked FIFA: 127.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ethiopia won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 0.8:1).

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ethiopia
Friendly
06.06.26	Ethiopia - Malawi	1:0 ✺
Africa Cup of Nations
31.03.26	Ethiopia - São Tomé and Príncipe	1:0 ✺
27.03.26	São Tomé and Príncipe - Ethiopia	0:3 ✺
FIFA World Cup
12.10.25	Burkina Faso - Ethiopia	3:1 ✺
08.10.25	Ethiopia - Guinea Bissau	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 WWWLW
- Malawi
Friendly
06.06.26	Ethiopia - Malawi	1:0 ✺
31.03.26	Botswana - Malawi	1:0 ✺
18.11.25	Lesotho - Malawi	0:1 ✺
15.11.25	Lesotho - Malawi	0:0 ✺
FIFA World Cup
13.10.25	São Tomé and Príncipe - Malawi	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Friendly
06.06.26	Ethiopia - Malawi	1:0
Africa Cup of Nations
20.06.23	Ethiopia - Malawi	0:0
05.06.22	Malawi - Ethiopia	2:1
19.11.14	Ethiopia - Malawi	0:0
10.09.14	Malawi - Ethiopia	3:2

Ethiopia - Malawi: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide