Match Info

World Cup - Qualification - Round 9

Date: 8 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Stade Amahoro (Kigali)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SuperSport Maximo 3
Ethiopia	ETV Ethiopia
Guinea-bissau	TGB
India	FanCode, FanCode
Portugal	Sport TV4
Slovenia	SportKlub 6
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
World	FIFA+


	Ethiopia		Guinea Bissau

	1	X	2
	5.75	3.6	1.67	Watch
	5.25	3.6	1.66	Watch
	5.9	3.35	1.65	Watch
	5.64	3.39	1.64
	4.28	3.39	1.80	Watch
	6.1	3.4	1.64	Watch
	5.5	3.6	1.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.49 ↑ (4.5)	3.48 ↑ (2.9)	1.67 ↓ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ethiopia
17%

Draw
26.9%

Guinea Bissau
56%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.8%

32.3%

46.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ethiopia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Guinea Bissau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Guinea Bissau's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	8.3%	75%

Ethiopia - Guinea Bissau Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Ethiopia will win (votes: 2 - 20%). Guinea Bissau will win (votes: 7 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guinea Bissau: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Ethiopia (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Guinea Bissau (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Guinea Bissau (1.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Ethiopia (2.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Ethiopia (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Guinea Bissau (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Getahun F. (G) Ethiopia Nigd Bank 10. Biniam A. Adama City 7. Desta B. Mechal SC 18. Gezahegn W. Ethiopian Insurance 17. Gugsa C. Bahir Dar Kenema 3. James R. Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee) 16. Kebede K. Welayta Dicha 13. Reshid A. Dire Dawa 5. Sherefa H. (C) Ethiopian Insurance 20. Wolde B. St. Georges 12. Yesouf A. Dire Dawa	1. Balde M. (G) Penafiel 7. Balde E. Radomiak Radom 9. Beto Everton 8. Camara P. Dundee Utd 5. Cande F. Sassuolo 20. Mane S. (C) Torpedo Kutaisi 21. Nanu APOEL 19. Nhaga R. Casa Pia 18. Nito Pacos Ferreira 14. Rodrigues M. Yverdon 11. Sanca M. Almeria
Coaches
Haile G.	Te E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', 1 - 0, James R. ⚽, Yesouf A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Beto 🟨,
59', Biniam A. ↓, Hussien A. ↑,
60', Wolde B. ↓, Yitagesu T. ↑,
63', Balde E. ↓, Ninte M. ↑,
63', Sanca M. ↓, Monteiro T. ↑,
64', Camara P. ↓, Dalcio ↑,
66', Yitagesu T. 🟨,
72', Desta B. ↓, Jima K. ↑,
83', Getahun F. 🟨,
84', Nito ↓, Encada J. ↑,
87', Yesouf A. ↓, Tute W. ↑,
87', Gugsa C. ↓, Abera M. ↑,
90+3', 🟨,

Preview

Neutral location.

In this match, Guinea Bissau is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ethiopia won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ethiopia
FIFA World Cup
09.09.25	Sierra Leone - Ethiopia	2:0 ✺
05.09.25	Egypt - Ethiopia	2:0 ✺
24.03.25	Ethiopia - Djibouti	6:1 ✺
21.03.25	Ethiopia - Egypt	0:2 ✺
African Nations Championship
22.12.24	Ethiopia - Sudan	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLWLL
- Guinea Bissau
FIFA World Cup
08.09.25	Guinea Bissau - Djibouti	2:0 ✺
04.09.25	Guinea Bissau - Sierra Leone	1:1 ✺
Friendly
09.06.25	Guinea Bissau - Gabon	0:2 ✺
06.06.25	Guinea Bissau - Burundi	0:1 ✺
FIFA World Cup
24.03.25	Guinea Bissau - Burkina Faso	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 WTLLL

Latest Head to Head

FIFA World Cup
06.06.24	Guinea Bissau - Ethiopia	0:0

Ethiopia - Guinea Bissau: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide