Match Info

Premier League

Date: 17 December 2025, Wednesday

Location: Umuganda Stadium (Gisenyi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App
Rwanda	Magic Sports TV


	Etincelles		Al-Merreikh

	1	X	2
	3.65	2.78	2.08
	3.47	2.82	2.16
	3.5	2.7	2.15
	3.61	2.82	2.13
	3.5	2.8	2.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.55 ↓ (3.85)	2.78 ↓ (2.95)	2.13 ↑ (1.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 10.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Etincelles
25.4%

Draw
32.4%

Al-Merreikh
42.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.6%

30.7%

45.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.9%

29.7%

47.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Etincelles has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Al-Merreikh has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Etincelles than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Merreikh than the current prediction. (+5%)

Etincelles - Al Merreikh Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2nd Half (0 - 1)

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 9).

Recent performances by Etincelles have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Al-Merreikh is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Al-Merreikh may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Etincelles has had a series of away games.

Recently, Al-Merreikh has had a series of home games.

Al-Merreikh will hold a modest advantage in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Etincelles FC
Rwanda Premier League
13.12.25	Musanze - Etincelles	1:3 ✺
05.12.25	Kiyovu Sports - Etincelles	4:1 ✺
02.12.25	APR - Etincelles	2:1 ✺
28.11.25	Etincelles - Mukura Victory Sports	1:1 ✺
22.11.25	Amagaju - Etincelles	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WLLTT
- Al-Merreikh
Rwanda Premier League
14.12.25	Al-Merreikh - Amagaju	1:0 ✺
10.12.25	Al-Merreikh - Marines	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Al-Merreikh - Kigali	2:1 ✺
03.12.25	Rutsiro - Al-Merreikh	0:1 ✺
30.11.25	Al-Merreikh - Gorilla	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWWWL

Etincelles - Al-Merreikh: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide