Match Info

Esiliiga - Round 19

Date: 11 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Lasnamäe Sports Complex Stadium (Tallinn)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	FC Tallinn		Elva

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.60	4.00	1.70
	3.6	4.15	1.7
	3.46	4.23	1.68
	3.57	4.49	1.69	Watch
	3.30	4.10	1.64
	3.43	4.3	1.77
	3.60	4.10	1.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.51 ↓ (4.29)	4.2 ↑ (4.1)	1.69 ↑ (1.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

FC Tallinn
25.6%

Draw
21.4%

Elva
53%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21%

21.9%

57.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.3%

21.1%

59.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

FC Tallinn has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Elva has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for FC Tallinn than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with FC Tallinn that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elva than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Elva could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

FC Tallinn - Elva Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
37', 0 - 1, Salamatov N. (Own goal),
45+1', 0 - 2, Jagodinskis R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
63', 0 - 3, Mbuthia J. ⚽,
78', Avilov V. 🟥,
78', Laaneots D. 🟥,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, FC Tallinn won 0.

In recent matches, FC Tallinn has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Elva's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Elva has had a series of home games.

In this match, Elva is a strong favorite.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, FC Tallinn won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 23:22. (average 1.6:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, FC Tallinn won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:11. (average 2:1.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Elva	31	15	6	10	47:44	3	51
8	FC Tallinn	30	8	8	14	39:63	-24	32

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Tallinn
Estonian Esiliiga
04.07.26	FC Tallinn - Nõmme United U21	4:3 ✺
21.06.26	Levadia Tallinn U21 - FC Tallinn	4:0 ✺
18.06.26	FC Tallinn - Flora U21	1:3 ✺
13.06.26	Tartu Welco - FC Tallinn	4:0 ✺
01.06.26	Nõmme Kalju U21 - FC Tallinn	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WLLLW
- FC Elva
Estonian Esiliiga
05.07.26	Nõmme Kalju U21 - Elva	2:2 ✺
22.06.26	Elva - Flora U21	0:3 ✺
18.06.26	Elva - Viimsi JK	0:1 ✺
11.06.26	Elva - Maardu Linnameeskond	4:3 ✺
01.06.26	Elva - Tartu Welco	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Esiliiga
07.05.26	Elva - FC Tallinn	2:0
07.03.26	FC Tallinn - Elva	1:1
19.10.25	Elva - FC Tallinn	1:0
16.08.25	FC Tallinn - Elva	1:2
22.05.25	Elva - FC Tallinn	1:1
24.04.25	FC Tallinn - Elva	1:1
06.10.24	Elva - FC Tallinn	0:1

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