Match Info

Esiliiga - Round 18

Date: 5 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Hiiu Stadium (Tallinn)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Jalgpall.ee


	Nõmme Kalju U21		Elva

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.75	3.75	2.00
	2.52	3.85	2.18
	2.89	3.90	1.98
	2.67	3.96	2.15
	2.80	3.75	1.88
	2.68	4	2.14
	2.75	3.70	2.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.72 ↑ (2.58)	3.84 ↑ (3.8)	2.06 ↓ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nõmme Kalju U21
33%

Draw
23.4%

Elva
43.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.7%

23.5%

41.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.5%

22.3%

39.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nõmme Kalju U21 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Elva has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nõmme Kalju U21 than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elva than the current prediction. (-4%)

Nõmme Kalju U21 - Elva Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
26', 1 - 0, Godwin C. (Penalty Awarded),
32', 2 - 0, Godwin C. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
71', 2 - 1, Kanter J. ⚽,
90', 2 - 2, Kanter J. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 10 in the zone Relegation ~ Esiliiga B and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nõmme Kalju U21 won 2.

Nõmme Kalju U21 is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Elva has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Elva has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Nõmme Kalju U21 won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 10:16. (average 1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Nõmme Kalju U21 won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:7. (average 0.5:1.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Elva	31	15	6	10	47:44	3	51
9	Nomme Kalju U21	31	7	4	20	38:79	-41	25

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nõmme Kalju U21
Estonian Esiliiga
21.06.26	Tallinna Kalev - Nõmme Kalju U21	5:1 ✺
18.06.26	Maardu Linnameeskond - Nõmme Kalju U21	2:1 ✺
15.06.26	Nõmme Kalju U21 - Nõmme United U21	4:1 ✺
01.06.26	Nõmme Kalju U21 - FC Tallinn	1:3 ✺
28.05.26	Tartu Welco - Nõmme Kalju U21	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LLWLL
- FC Elva
Estonian Esiliiga
22.06.26	Elva - Flora U21	0:3 ✺
18.06.26	Elva - Viimsi JK	0:1 ✺
11.06.26	Elva - Maardu Linnameeskond	4:3 ✺
01.06.26	Elva - Tartu Welco	0:2 ✺
28.05.26	Levadia Tallinn U21 - Elva	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Esiliiga
02.05.26	Elva - Nõmme Kalju U21	2:4
04.10.25	Elva - Nõmme Kalju U21	0:1
30.08.25	Nõmme Kalju U21 - Elva	0:1
11.05.25	Elva - Nõmme Kalju U21	2:1
08.03.25	Nõmme Kalju U21 - Elva	0:2
Estonian Cup
24.08.22	Elva - Nõmme Kalju U21	Elva walkover
Estonian Esiliiga
15.09.18	Elva - Nõmme Kalju U21	3:2

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