Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 7

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Famalicao (Vila Nova de Famalicao)

Referee: Pereira C. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Israel	Sport 4
Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4


	Famalicão		Rio Ave

	1	X	2
	1.61	4.1	4.75	Watch
	1.65	3.95	4.95
	1.67	4.07	5.14
	1.65	3.30	6.45	Watch
				Watch
	1.7	4.22	4.89	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (1.79)	3.93 ↑ (3.63)	5.24 ↑ (4.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Famalicão
57.5%

Draw
24.3%

Rio Ave
18.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

25.6%

22.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

25.3%

22.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Famalicão has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Famalicão's performance.

Rio Ave has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Famalicão than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Ave than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	22.2%	0%

Famalicão - Rio Ave Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Famalicão will win (votes: 21 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Famalicão: 62.1% – 93.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Rio Ave (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Famalicão (2.28) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Rio Ave (2.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Famalicão will win (16 of 19 users predict this - 84.21%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 25 Selected Experts predict this event. Famalicão (votes: 20 - 80%). Rio Ave (votes: 2 - 8%). Tie (votes: 3 - 12%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Carevic L. (G) 17. Pinheiro R. 3. Realpe L. 16. De Haas J. 5. Rafa Soares 14. De Amorim M. 6. Van de Looi T. 23. Gil Dias 20. Sa G. (C) 7. Sorriso 12. Elisor S.	1. Miszta C. (G) 23. Petrasso F. 5. Ntoi A. 4. Panzo J. 63. Lomboto J. 10. Aguilera Zamora B. 80. Pohlmann O. 77. Richards O. T. C. 11. Andre Luiz 9. Clayton 17. Vrousai M. (C)
Substitutes
9. Abubakar U. 55. Ba I. 2. Garcia 77. Joujou A. 15. Mamageishvili O. 8. Pena M. 19. Ribeiro R. 80. Santos P. 1. Zlobin I. (G)	6. Abbey N. 3. Athanasiou N. 22. Chamorro K. (G) 2. da Silva Moreira E. 21. Graca J. 28. Gual M. 54. Liavas G. 44. Nikitscher T. 18. Spikic D.
Coaches
Oliveira H.	Sylaidopoulos S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Aguilera Zamora B. 🟨,
19', De Amorim M. 🟨,
30', Rafa Soares 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Rafa Soares ↓, Garcia ↑,
50', Elisor S. 🟨,
57', Lomboto J. 🟨,
59', Lomboto J. ↓, Spikic D. ↑,
59', Pohlmann O. ↓, Liavas G. ↑,
62', Van de Looi T. 🟨,
64', Richards O. T. C. ↓, Athanasiou N. ↑,
64', Aguilera Zamora B. ↓, Nikitscher T. ↑,
64', Gil Dias ↓, Joujou A. ↑,
79', Elisor S. ↓, Abubakar U. ↑,
79', De Amorim M. ↓, Mamageishvili O. ↑,
81', Liavas G. 🟨,
88', Clayton ↓, Gual M. ↑,
90+6', Miszta C. 🟨,
90+12', Andre Luiz 🟨,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 6 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Famalicão won 2.

Recent performances by Famalicão have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Rio Ave's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Rio Ave may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Famalicão is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Famalicão: Aranda O. (Knee Injury) Pastor G. (Inactive) Zabiri Y. (International duty)

There will not play in Rio Ave: Bakoulas T. (Injury)

There are questionable in Famalicão: Beney R. (Inactive) Rafa Soares (Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Famalicão won 5 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 18:14. (average 1.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Famalicão won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:3. (average 1.2:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Famalicão
Liga Portugal
21.09.25	Casa Pia - Famalicão	1:1 ✺
13.09.25	Famalicão - Sporting Lisbon	1:2 ✺
30.08.25	AVS - Famalicão	0:1 ✺
24.08.25	Famalicão - Gil Vicente	0:0 ✺
16.08.25	Tondela - Famalicão	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 TLWTW
- Rio Ave FC
Liga Portugal
23.09.25	Benfica - Rio Ave	1:1 ✺
19.09.25	Rio Ave - Porto	0:3 ✺
13.09.25	Moreirense - Rio Ave	3:1 ✺
31.08.25	Rio Ave - Braga	2:2 ✺
23.08.25	Arouca - Rio Ave	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 30.5 TLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
10.03.25	Famalicão - Rio Ave	1:0
04.10.24	Rio Ave - Famalicão	1:1
16.02.24	Famalicão - Rio Ave	2:1
16.09.23	Rio Ave - Famalicão	1:1
26.05.23	Rio Ave - Famalicão	2:2
22.01.23	Famalicão - Rio Ave	0:0
21.02.21	Rio Ave - Famalicão	0:1

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