Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 1

Date: 23 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estádio da Luz (Lisbon)

Referee: Guelho S. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	DAZN Italia
Poland	Eleven Sports 2, Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	Benfica TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 2
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter


	Benfica		Rio Ave

	1	X	2
	1.11	8	17	Watch
	1.13	8.8	14.5	Watch
	1.14	9.11	19.32
	1.20	6.48	13.50	Watch
				Watch
	1.19	7.49	14.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.15 ↑ (1.08)	7.98 ↓ (9.2)	15.68 ↓ (22)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Benfica
82.1%

Draw
11.9%

Rio Ave
6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

85.7%

10.1%

4.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benfica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Rio Ave has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.2%	9.5%	14.3%

Benfica - Rio Ave Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Benfica will win (votes: 14 - 73.7%). Rio Ave will win (votes: 3 - 15.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Benfica: 53.9% – 93.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Benfica (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Rio Ave (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +2.5 - Rio Ave (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 6.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Benfica (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Rio Ave (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trubin A. (G) 17. Dedic A. 4. Silva A. 30. Otamendi N. (C) 26. Dahl S. 5. Barrenechea E. 20. Rios R. 9. Ivanovic F. 10. Sudakov G. 8. Aursnes F. 14. Pavlidis V.	1. Miszta C. (G) 23. Petrasso F. 32. Brabec J. 4. Panzo J. 17. Vrousai M. (C) 5. Ntoi A. 10. Aguilera Zamora B. 77. Richards O. T. C. 80. Pohlmann O. 28. Gual M. 18. Spikic D.
Substitutes
39. Araujo H. 44. Araujo T. 18. Barreiro L. 11. Lukebakio D. 3. Obrador R. 25. Prestianni G. 21. Schjelderup A. 24. Soares S. (G) 68. Veloso J.	6. Abbey N. 11. Andre Luiz 3. Athanasiou N. 22. Chamorro K. (G) 9. Clayton 2. da Silva Moreira E. 21. Graca J. 54. Liavas G. 44. Nikitscher T.
Coaches
Mourinho J.	Sylaidopoulos S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Ivanovic F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
55', Brabec J. 🟨,
57', Dahl S. 🟨,
58', Gual M. ↓, Clayton ↑,
58', Spikic D. ↓, Andre Luiz ↑,
65', Ivanovic F. ↓, Lukebakio D. ↑,
65', Dahl S. ↓, Schjelderup A. ↑,
68', Pohlmann O. ↓, Athanasiou N. ↑,
74', Vrousai M. ↓, Nikitscher T. ↑,
74', Richards O. T. C. ↓, Liavas G. ↑,
86', 1 - 0, Sudakov G. ⚽, Lukebakio D. (A),
89', Sudakov G. ↓, Barreiro L. ↑,
90', Clayton 🟨,
90+1', 1 - 1, Andre Luiz ⚽, Nikitscher T. (A),
90+2', Rios R. ↓, Araujo H. ↑,
90+7', Barrenechea E. 🟨,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: ) and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Benfica won 4.

Benfica is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Rio Ave has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Benfica may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Benfica is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Benfica: Bah A. (Knee Injury) Bruma (Achilles Tendon Injury) Felix N. (Knee Injury) Lukebakio D. (Foot Injury) Manu (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Rio Ave: Bakoulas T. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Benfica won 17 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 51:19. (average 2.6:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Benfica won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 33:9. (average 3.3:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SL Benfica
Liga Portugal
20.09.25	AVS - Benfica	0:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
16.09.25	Benfica - Qarabağ Agdam	2:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
12.09.25	Benfica - Santa Clara	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Alverca - Benfica	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
27.08.25	Benfica - Fenerbahçe	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WLTWW
- Rio Ave FC
Liga Portugal
19.09.25	Rio Ave - Porto	0:3 ✺
13.09.25	Moreirense - Rio Ave	3:1 ✺
31.08.25	Rio Ave - Braga	2:2 ✺
23.08.25	Arouca - Rio Ave	3:3 ✺
17.08.25	Rio Ave - Nacional	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
16.03.25	Rio Ave - Benfica	2:3
27.10.24	Benfica - Rio Ave	5:0
17.05.24	Rio Ave - Benfica	1:1
14.01.24	Benfica - Rio Ave	4:1
02.04.23	Rio Ave - Benfica	0:1
08.10.22	Benfica - Rio Ave	4:2
01.03.21	Benfica - Rio Ave	2:0

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