Match Info

Turkish Cup - Round 1

Date: 17 December 2025, Wednesday

Location: Atatürk Olimpiyat (Istanbul)

Referee: Taskinsoy A. B. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	A Spor
Turkey	A Spor


	Fatih Karagümrükspor		İstanbulspor

	1	X	2
	1.33	5	7
	1.35	4.66	8.52
	1.39	4.91	7.05
	1.37	5.08	7.16	Watch
	1.4	4.5	5.75
	1.97	3.65	3.43	Watch
	1.27	5.33	8.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (2.37)	4.73 ↑ (3.55)	6.77 ↑ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fatih Karagümrükspor
65.9%

Draw
20.1%

İstanbulspor
14%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

26.1%

34.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

25.8%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fatih Karagümrükspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+26.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fatih Karagümrükspor's performance.

İstanbulspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-20.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and İstanbulspor might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fatih Karagümrükspor than the current prediction. (-27.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fatih Karagümrükspor that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for İstanbulspor than the current prediction. (+21.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that İstanbulspor could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
95.2%	4.8%	0%

Fatih Karagümrükspor - İstanbulspor Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Karagümrük will win (votes: 20 - 95.2%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 4.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Karagümrük: 86.1% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Karagümrük (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -1 - Karagümrük (1.97) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fatih Karagümrükspor will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Karagümrük (votes: 12 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
96. Yandal K. (G) 47. Esgaio R. 94. Cinar A. 32. Kadioglu M. 33. Kurukalip C. 34. Demirol A. 11. Johnson D. (C) 14. Doh M. 72. Kalayci B. 70. Serginho 91. Gray A.	28. Tutar A. (G) 83. Dayakli I. 27. Koseoglu E. 40. Erdal I. A. 94. Polat B. 32. Mermerci D. 92. Colak M. 70. Sahin C. (C) 31. Sandikci E. 30. Cham A. 99. Sol M.
Substitutes
29. Balkovec J. 21. Cukur T. 24. Ersoy B. 98. Evli B. (G) 19. Fofana D. D. 20. Kalpakli T. 5. Kranevitter M. 8. Ozcan B. 17. Sivri A.	85. Alikan E. 90. Alsancak E. 59. Arda A. (G) 33. Ay F. K. 2. Bahadir Y. 95. Bozkus B. 96. Caliskan O. 42. Yavuz S. 93. Yazici M. 35. Yilmaz T.
Coaches
Korkmaz O.	Kanbak B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', Gray A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Serginho ↓, Sivri A. ↑,
46', Kurukalip C. ↓, Balkovec J. ↑,
59', Demirol A. ↓, Ozcan B. ↑,
66', Sol M. ↓, Yavuz S. ↑,
74', Cinar A. 🟨,
76', Johnson D. ↓, Fofana D. D. ↑,
79', Sandikci E. ↓, Ay F. K. ↑,
87', Sahin C. ↓, Yilmaz T. ↑,
87', Koseoglu E. ↓, Bozkus B. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Karagümrük won 4.

In recent matches, Karagümrük has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

İstanbulspor is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Karagümrük may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Karagümrük won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:9. (average 1.2:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Karagümrük won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:2. (average 1.6:0.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Fatih Karagümrükspor - the odds 2.37 are the expected chance of winning is 39.02%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fatih Karagümrükspor
Turkish Super League
14.12.25	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Kocaelispor	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Gençlerbirliği - Fatih Karagümrükspor	3:0 ✺
Turkish Cup
03.12.25	Erokspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	2:5 ✺
Turkish Super League
30.11.25	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Beşiktaş	0:2 ✺
22.11.25	Eyüpspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TLWLT
- İstanbulspor AŞ
Turkish First League
13.12.25	Sarıyer - İstanbulspor	1:2 ✺
07.12.25	İstanbulspor - Sivasspor	2:1 ✺
Turkish Cup
03.12.25	İstanbulspor - Sarıyer	6:0 ✺
Turkish First League
29.11.25	Erzurumspor - İstanbulspor	4:0 ✺
22.11.25	İstanbulspor - Sakaryaspor	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Turkish First League
22.02.25	İstanbulspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	2:0
30.09.24	Fatih Karagümrükspor - İstanbulspor	1:0
Turkish Super League
20.04.24	İstanbulspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	1:2
01.12.23	Fatih Karagümrükspor - İstanbulspor	3:0
03.04.23	İstanbulspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	0:1
03.10.22	Fatih Karagümrükspor - İstanbulspor	1:2
Turkish First League
28.06.20	Fatih Karagümrükspor - İstanbulspor	1:0

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