Match Info

Serie C - Play Offs - Final

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Arena Fonte Luminosa (Araraquara) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Brazil	17:00	SportyNet


	Ferroviária		Maringá

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.05	2.90	3.40
	1.97	3.05	3.60	Watch
	2.28	3.03	3.37
	2.05	3.09	3.89	Watch
	2.20	3.00	3.25
	2.24	2.86	3.65
	2.16	3.00	3.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↑ (1.85)	2.99 ↑ (2.86)	3.51 ↓ (4.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferroviária
43%

Draw
30.7%

Maringá
26.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

48.9%

31.5%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.9%

32.1%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviária has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ferroviária's form might have worsened.

Maringá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Maringá's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ferroviária, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maringá than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Maringá, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Ferroviária - Maringá Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Denis Junior (G) 10. Albano 8. Alencar 44. Carlao 9. Denilson Chaves 29. Eduardo Oliveira 77. Juninho 2. Lucas Rodrigues 5. Ricardinho 11. Vitor Barreto (C) 40. Ze Vitor	25. Neto (G) 8. Adeilson 99. Caique Calito 7. Edison Negueba 18. Jhow Alecxander 28. Lucas Bonifacio 23. Paulinho 21. Ronald Camarao 30. Ronald Carvalho 6. Thiago Rosa 4. Wendel Lomar (C)
Substitutes
21. Alan Stence 36. Douglas Skilo 12. Fabio Rampi (G) 7. Fau 22. Felipe Rodrigues 15. Fernandinho 4. Guilherme Ferreira 99. Maranhao 30. Raoni 6. Rhuan 23. Schilling Arthur 19. Thiago M.	1. Affonso de Jesus G. (G) 20. Bruno Cheron 3. Gabriel Santos 2. Gabriel Souza 9. Giovane Gomez 10. Guilherme Pira 17. Iago Santana 44. Jesiel 19. Julio Rodrigues 5. Kelvi Gomes 29. Rai Natalino 37. Serginho
Coaches
Rogerio Correa	Campanari I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
4', 0 - 1, Lucas Bonifacio ⚽,
12', 0 - 2, Ronald Camarao ⚽,
29', Carlao ↓, Guilherme Ferreira ↑,
29', Ricardinho ↓, Schilling Arthur ↑,
45+6', Wendel Lomar 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Jhow Alecxander ↓, Gabriel Souza ↑,
59', Ronald Carvalho 🟨,
60', Eduardo Oliveira ↓, Fau ↑,
60', Vitor Barreto ↓, Alan Stence ↑,
61', Gabriel Souza 🟨,
64', Juninho ↓, Maranhao ↑,
66', Caique Calito ↓, Rai Natalino ↑,
72', Ronald Camarao 🟨,
73', Thiago Rosa ↓, Gabriel Santos ↑,
73', Paulinho ↓, Iago Santana ↑,
73', Ronald Camarao ↓, Guilherme Pira ↑,
79', Lucas Bonifacio 🟨,
82', 1 - 2, Alencar ⚽,
85', Alencar ↓, Thiago M. ↑,
90+2', 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 1-1.

A high-stakes showdown between two teams from the upper tier of the standings (ranked 1st in the Promotion - Serie B and 1st in the Promotion - Serie B).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ferroviária won 0.

In recent outings, Ferroviária has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Maringá is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Ferroviária is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Ferroviária has recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 6:7 (averaging 1:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ferroviária against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 1:3 goals (averaging 0.5:1.5 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Ferroviária - the odds 1.85 are the expected chance of winning is 48.85%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Serie C
17.10.26	Maringá - Ferroviária	1:1 ✺
11.10.26	Ferroviária - Internacional de Limeira	2:0 ✺
03.10.26	Paysandu - Ferroviária	1:0 ✺
27.09.26	Brusque - Ferroviária	1:1 ✺
20.09.26	Ferroviária - Brusque	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TWLTW
- Maringá FC
Brazilian Serie C
17.10.26	Maringá - Ferroviária	1:1 ✺
10.10.26	Maringá - Floresta	2:0 ✺
03.10.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Maringá	1:1 ✺
26.09.26	Botafogo PB - Maringá	0:0 ✺
19.09.26	Maringá - Botafogo PB	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 TWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
17.10.26	Maringá - Ferroviária	1:1
04.04.26	Maringá - Ferroviária	3:2
Brazilian Serie D
15.07.23	Ferroviária - Maringá	1:2
13.05.23	Maringá - Ferroviária	0:0
25.05.19	Ferroviária - Maringá	0:1
18.05.19	Maringá - Ferroviária	0:2

Ferroviária - Maringá