Match Info

Serie C - Second stage - Round 2

Date: 13 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Arena Fonte Luminosa (Araraquara)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Ferroviária		Paysandu

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.77	3.30	4.00
	1.85	3.30	3.75	Watch
	1.88	3.45	4.25
	1.77	3.72	4.22	Watch
	1.85	3.30	4.00
	1.82	3.48	4.32
	1.80	3.20	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↑ (1.75)	3.39 ↓ (3.4)	4.07 ↓ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferroviária
50.4%

Draw
27%

Paysandu
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.5%

26.5%

22%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3%

25.6%

21.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviária has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Paysandu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Ferroviária - Paysandu Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Denis Junior (G) 10. Albano 8. Alencar 29. Eduardo Oliveira 22. Felipe Rodrigues 13. Gustavo Medina 77. Juninho 99. Maranhao 18. Rafael Carillho 11. Vitor Barreto (C) 40. Ze Vitor	12. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 8. Caio Mello (C) 15. Castro 2. Edilson 9. Italo Carvalho 75. Kleiton Pego 22. Lucas Rodrigues 10. Marcinho 44. Pedro Carrerette 39. Pedro Henrique 21. Renan Castro
Substitutes
21. Alan Stence 44. Carlao 38. Douglas Skilo 12. Fabio Rampi (G) 7. Fau 27. Igor Henrique 30. Raoni 6. Rhuan 5. Ricardinho 23. Schilling Arthur 19. Thiago M.	23. Brian Macapa 14. Bruno Bispo 18. Eduardo 3. Gustavo Henrique 1. Jean Drosny (G) 98. Juninho 99. Lucas Cardoso 80. Pablo 55. Radsley 30. Thalyson 19. Thayllon
Coaches
Rogerio Correa	Junior Rocha

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', Gustavo Medina 🟨,
14', Marcinho 🟨,
20', 1 - 0, Juninho ⚽,
25', Edilson 🟨,
29', Ze Vitor 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Eduardo Oliveira 🟨,
63', Edilson ↓, Eduardo ↑,
69', Juninho ↓, Fau ↑,
69', Maranhao ↓, Thiago M. ↑,
73', Alencar ↓, Igor Henrique ↑,
73', Albano ↓, Schilling Arthur ↑,
74', Castro ↓, Lucas Cardoso ↑,
74', Kleiton Pego ↓, Pablo ↑,
74', Italo Carvalho ↓, Juninho ↑,
81', Vitor Barreto ↓, Douglas Skilo ↑,
84', Marcinho ↓, Thayllon ↑,
90+6', Denis Junior 🟨,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Paysandu may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ferroviária will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ferroviária won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:4. (average 2.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Ferroviária won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 3:1).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie C for now

Ferroviaria: 23.95%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Serie C
05.09.26	Internacional de Limeira - Ferroviária	3:3 ✺
29.08.26	Ferroviária - Confiança	1:0 ✺
23.08.26	Ypiranga - Ferroviária	1:0 ✺
17.08.26	Ferroviária - Paysandu	4:0 ✺
08.08.26	Figueirense - Ferroviária	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 TWLWT
- Paysandu PA
Brazilian Serie C
07.09.26	Paysandu - Brusque	1:2 ✺
29.08.26	Paysandu - Maringá	0:1 ✺
22.08.26	Ituano - Paysandu	0:1 ✺
17.08.26	Ferroviária - Paysandu	4:0 ✺
10.08.26	Paysandu - Confiança	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
17.08.26	Ferroviária - Paysandu	4:0
Brazilian Serie B
20.10.25	Ferroviária - Paysandu	2:2
30.06.25	Paysandu - Ferroviária	2:1

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