Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 18

Date: 22 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Novelli Júnior (Itu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	SportyNet
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Ituano		Paysandu

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.05	3.20	3.10
	2.12	3.25	3.00	Watch
	2.11	3.40	3.38
	2.09	3.34	3.43	Watch
	2.08	3.10	3.40
	2.09	3.24	3.55	Watch
	2.04	3.15	3.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↓ (2.21)	3.24 ↓ (3.3)	3.29 ↑ (2.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ituano
44%

Draw
28.3%

Paysandu
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.7%

27.3%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

26.3%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ituano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Paysandu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Ituano - Paysandu Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Saulo (G) 4. Gabriel William 6. Guilherme Dal Pian 10. Guilherme Xavier (C) 3. Leo Coltro 2. Lucas Mota 5. Martha 11. Neto Berola 8. Richard 7. Thassio 9. Vini Oliveira	12. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 23. Brian Macapa 14. Bruno Bispo 8. Caio Mello 2. Edilson (C) 9. Italo Carvalho 75. Kleiton Pego 22. Lucas Rodrigues 77. Luciano Taboca 44. Pedro Carrerette 19. Thayllon
Substitutes
17. Alason Carioca 19. Bruno Mezenga 23. Felipe Muranga 20. Fernando Canesin 14. Leandro Sergipe 21. Leo Passos 15. Leo Souza 22. Lucas Stefanello 12. Lucas Wingert (G) 18. Nelsinho 16. Tiaguinho 13. Victor Reis	31. Bonifazi F. 18. Edu 98. Gustavo Henrique 5. Henrico 1. Jean Drosny (G) 4. larley Brito 99. Lucas Cardoso 80. Pablo 55. Radsley 30. Thalyson 25. Tiago Indio
Coaches
de Freitas U.	Junior Rocha

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Richard 🟨,
36', Brian Macapa 🟨,
38', Bruno Bispo ↓, Gustavo Henrique ↑,
39', Gustavo Henrique 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Neto Berola ↓, Leo Passos ↑,
46', Richard ↓, Alason Carioca ↑,
61', Pedro Carrerette 🟨,
67', Gabriel William 🟨,
70', Guilherme Xavier 🟨,
76', Brian Macapa ↓, Pablo ↑,
76', Thayllon ↓, Tiago Indio ↑,
76', Kleiton Pego ↓, Thalyson ↑,
79', Guilherme Dal Pian ↓, Tiaguinho ↑,
79', Gabriel William ↓, Felipe Muranga ↑,
85', Tiaguinho 🟨,
86', Luciano Taboca ↓, Lucas Cardoso ↑,
88', 0 - 1, Italo Carvalho ⚽,
90', Martha ↓, Bruno Mezenga ↑,
90+4', Leo Coltro 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 15 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: )).

Recent form of Ituano has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Paysandu has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ituano is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Ituano won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 2.5:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Ituano won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:6. (average 3:3).

Last Results with these Odds

Ituano - the odds 2.21 are the expected chance of winning is 40.69%, but this team recently wins 17% of matches with these odds.

Paysandu - the odds 2.81 are the expected chance of winning is 32.06%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ituano
Brazilian Serie C
15.08.26	Volta Redonda - Ituano	1:0 ✺
08.08.26	Ituano - Barra Santa Catarina	2:0 ✺
26.07.26	Brusque - Ituano	1:0 ✺
12.07.26	Ituano - Ferroviária	1:3 ✺
04.07.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Ituano	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LWLLL
- Paysandu PA
Brazilian Serie C
17.08.26	Ferroviária - Paysandu	4:0 ✺
10.08.26	Paysandu - Confiança	2:1 ✺
26.07.26	Amazonas - Paysandu	2:1 ✺
12.07.26	Paysandu - Guarani	3:2 ✺
05.07.26	Ypiranga - Paysandu	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
27.09.24	Paysandu - Ituano	1:0
15.06.24	Ituano - Paysandu	3:5
Brazilian Serie C
23.10.21	Paysandu - Ituano	1:4
16.10.21	Ituano - Paysandu	3:1

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