Match Info

Paulista A2 - Second stage - Round 4

Date: 29 March 2026, Sunday


	Ferroviária		São José-SP

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2	3.01	3.97
	2.01	3.01	3.82	Watch
	2	2.8	3.9
	2.02	3.22	3.63	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↓ (2.14)	3.01 ↓ (3.06)	3.83 ↑ (3.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferroviária
45.6%

Draw
30.4%

São José-SP
23.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

29.9%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.3%

30.2%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviária has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

São José-SP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São José-SP than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Ferroviária - São José SP Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Michael Paulista ⚽,
21', 1 - 1, Vitor Barreto ⚽,
35', 2 - 1, Vitor Barreto ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
55', 3 - 1, Douglas Skilo ⚽,
86', 🟥,
90+1', 4 - 1, Fabio ⚽,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

São José-SP may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Ferroviária could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Ferroviária won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1:0.8).

Including home match between the teams, Ferroviária won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Ferroviária - the odds 2.14 are the expected chance of winning is 42.8%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
25.03.26	São José-SP - Ferroviária	0:1 ✺
18.03.26	Ferroviária - Sertãozinho	1:2 ✺
15.03.26	CA Juventus - Ferroviária	2:1 ✺
07.03.26	Ferroviária - Linense	1:1 ✺
28.02.26	Grêmio Prudente - Ferroviária	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLLTW
- São José-SP
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
25.03.26	São José-SP - Ferroviária	0:1 ✺
18.03.26	São José-SP - CA Juventus	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	Sertãozinho - São José-SP	1:2 ✺
07.03.26	São José-SP - Sertãozinho	1:2 ✺
28.02.26	Votuporanguense - São José-SP	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
25.03.26	São José-SP - Ferroviária	0:1
18.02.26	São José-SP - Ferroviária	1:1
16.02.25	Ferroviária - São José-SP	0:1
09.03.24	São José-SP - Ferroviária	1:2

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