Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie C - First stage - Round 1

Date: 22 April 2024, Monday

Location: Estadio Dr. Adhemar de Barros (Sao Paulo)


	Ferroviária		ABC

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.85	3.1	3.9
	1.87	3.2	4	Watch
	1.88	3.15	4.98
	1.85	3.09	4.98
	1.8	3.2	3.8
	1.79	3.33	4.54	Watch
	1.9	3.15	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (2.25)	3.17 ↓ (3.2)	4.3 ↑ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferroviária
49.7%

Draw
28.9%

ABC
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

28.7%

30.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

27.3%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviária has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ferroviária's performance.

ABC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and ABC might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ferroviária that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for ABC than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that ABC could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ferroviária - ABC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Saulo (G) 9. de Moura C. 3. Gustavo Medina 6. Igor Fernandes 4. Jackson 7. Juninho 2. Lucas Rodrigues 5. Ricardinho 10. Victor Andrade 11. Vitor Barreto 8. Xavier	1. Carlos Eduardo (G) 10. Adryan 5. Daniel 8. Erick Varao 2. Felipe Albuquerque 21. Gabriel Santiago 6. Manoel 17. Richardson 7. Ruan 11. Wallyson 3. Wesley
Substitutes
19. Antonio Gabriel 20. Fernando Boldrin 12. Leo Wall (G) 18. Paulinho Santos 14. Ronaldo Alves 22. Santos C. 17. Silva de Oliveira L. H. 15. Ze Mateus	9. Daniel Cruz 19. Diego Jardel 14. Eduardo Thuram 20. Lucas Oliveira 16. Romario 15. Vinicius Amaral 12. Wellington (G) 13. Yuri Ferraz

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', Wesley 🟨,
20', 1 - 0, Juninho ⚽,
27', Ricardinho 🟨,
28', Ruan 🟨,
32', Igor Fernandes 🟨,
37', Felipe Albuquerque 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Adryan ↓, Felipe P. ↑,
51', 1 - 1, Ruan ⚽,
69', Juninho ↓, Santos C. ↑,
77', Wallyson ↓, Yuri Ferraz ↑,
77', Gabriel Santiago ↓, Vinicius Amaral ↑,
77', Ruan ↓, Daniel Cruz ↑,
80', Ricardinho ↓, Silva de Oliveira L. H. ↑,
81', Vitor Barreto ↓, Ze Mateus ↑,
89', Victor Andrade ↓, Paulo P. ↑,
90', Felipe Albuquerque ↓, Eduardo Thuram ↑,

Preview

Recent matches Ferroviária is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

ABC is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ferroviária will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
27.03.24	Ferroviária - CA Juventus	0:1 penalties ✺
24.03.24	CA Juventus - Ferroviária	1:1 ✺
16.03.24	Ferroviária - EC Primavera	1:1 ✺
09.03.24	São José-SP - Ferroviária	1:2 ✺
06.03.24	Ferroviária - Taubaté	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LTTWT
- ABC FC
Brazilian Campeonato Potiguar
06.04.24	Santa Cruz de Natal - ABC	2:0 ✺
03.04.24	ABC - Globo FC	0:0 ✺
31.03.24	Santa Cruz de Natal - ABC	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
27.03.24	Ríver PI - ABC	0:1 ✺
23.03.24	ABC - Sport Recife	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LTLWL

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