Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie A - Round 18

Date: 21 July 2024, Sunday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Torezin L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Chile	MEGOGO
Peru	L1 Play
World	Amazon Prime Video, Fanatiz


	Fortaleza		Atlético Goianiense

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.5	5	Watch
	1.78	3.6	4.75
	1.78	3.6	4.5
	1.7	3.84	5.41
	1.78	3.6	4.74	Watch
	1.7	3.6	4.6
	1.75	3.74	4.72	Watch
	1.74	3.5	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.6)	3.62 ↓ (3.75)	4.82 ↓ (5.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza
54.2%

Draw
26.1%

Atlético Goianiense
19.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.9%

25.1%

15.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.9%

24.3%

15.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Atlético Goianiense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fortaleza, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Goianiense than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	8.3%	8.3%

Fortaleza - Atlético Goianiense Predictions

Users Predictions: Fortaleza will win (40 of 48 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.79% – 93.87%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Joao Ricardo (G) 2. Tinga (C) 13. Kuscevic B. 25. Cardona T. 6. Bruno Pacheco 16. Matheus Rossetto 35. Hercules 7. Pochettino T. 22. Yago Pikachu 9. Lucero J. 26. Breno Lopes	1. Ronaldo Strada (C) 3. Adriano Martins 5. Luiz Felipe 4. Alix Vinicius 2. Roni 7. Rhaldney 8. Baralhas 6. Guilherme Romao 11. Janderson 9. Jan Hurtado 10. Luiz Fernando
Substitutes
31. Amorim 77. Andrade K. 20. Dudu 36. Felipe Jonatan 37. Kauan 88. Lucas Sasha 39. Machuca I. 21. Moises 28. Pedro Augusto 32. Pedro Rocha 79. Renato Kayzer 23. Santos (G)	18. Cruz A. 15. Gustavo Campanharo 16. Lucas Kal 13. Maguinho 14. Marcao 21. Max 12. Pedro Rangel (G) 19. Rodriguez E. 17. Shaylon 20. Yony Gonzalez
Coaches
Vojvoda J.	Vagner Mancini

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
23', 1 - 0, Pochettino T. ⚽, Hercules (A),
28', Janderson 🟨,
39', Hercules 🟨,
45', 1 - 1, Roni ⚽, Guilherme Romao (A),
45+2', Jan Hurtado 🟥,
45+6', Kuscevic B. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
47', Rhaldney 🟨,
55', Kuscevic B. 🟨,
56', Cardona T. 🟨,
57', Ronaldo Strada 🟨,
62', 2 - 1, Alix Vinicius (Own goal),
63', Matheus Rossetto ↓, Renato Kayzer ↑,
63', Breno Lopes ↓, Moises ↑,
67', Pochettino T. ↓, Pedro Augusto ↑,
67', Yago Pikachu ↓, Lucas Sasha ↑,
67', Baralhas ↓, Cruz A. ↑,
68', Janderson ↓, Yony Gonzalez ↑,
74', 3 - 1, Renato Kayzer ⚽, Moises (A),
85', Lucero J. ↓, Machuca I. ↑,
85', Roni ↓, Lucas Kal ↑,
85', Rhaldney ↓, Gustavo Campanharo ↑,
85', Luiz Felipe ↓, Maguinho ↑,
90+5', Bruno Pacheco 🟨,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Fortaleza won 1.

Fortaleza is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Atlético GO has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Fortaleza is a favorite.

There will not play in Atlético GO: Bruno Tubarao (Injury) Pedro Henrique (Injury)

Our prediction for today's Fortaleza to win the game is with odds 1.71.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Fortaleza won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Fortaleza won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie A
17.07.24	Fortaleza - Vitória Salvador	3:1 ✺
11.07.24	Flamengo - Fortaleza	1:2 ✺
07.07.24	Fortaleza - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
03.07.24	Vasco da Gama - Fortaleza	2:0 ✺
30.06.24	Fortaleza - Juventude	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 WWWLW
- Atlético Goianiense
Brazilian Serie A
17.07.24	Atlético Goianiense - Vasco da Gama	0:1 ✺
11.07.24	Palmeiras - Atlético Goianiense	3:1 ✺
07.07.24	Atlético Goianiense - Athletico Paranaense	1:2 ✺
03.07.24	Red Bull Bragantino - Atlético Goianiense	3:1 ✺
30.06.24	Atlético Mineiro - Atlético Goianiense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
06.11.22	Fortaleza - Atlético Goianiense	1:1
17.07.22	Atlético Goianiense - Fortaleza	0:1
02.10.21	Fortaleza - Atlético Goianiense	0:3
17.06.21	Atlético Goianiense - Fortaleza	0:0
24.01.21	Atlético Goianiense - Fortaleza	2:0
04.10.20	Fortaleza - Atlético Goianiense	0:0
Brazilian Serie B
03.11.18	Atlético Goianiense - Fortaleza	1:2

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