Match Info

Cearense - Championship Group - Round 2

Date: 2 February 2026, Monday

Location: Domingão (Horizonte)


	Floresta		Ferroviário Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	2.42	2.95	3.33
	2.22	2.84	3.52	Watch
	2.38	2.88	2.8
	2.31	2.71	3.36
	2.14	3.2	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↑ (1.92)	2.92 ↓ (3.33)	3.3 ↓ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Floresta
40.3%

Draw
31.7%

Ferroviário Fortaleza
28%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.6%

28%

23.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.4%

27.9%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Floresta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Floresta's form might have worsened.

Ferroviário Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Floresta than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Floresta, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviário Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Floresta - Ferroviário Fortaleza Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tiepo (G) 15. Eliandro 27. Marco Antonio 3. Eduardo 4. Joao Victor 6. Diego Matos 5. Danrley 10. Matheusinho 8. Guilherme Borges 7. Bismark 9. Joao Celeri	93. Sivaldo Junior (G) 2. Ramires 3. Leo Paraiso 4. Iago Reis 6. Pedrinho 5. Luan 8. Lucas Black 16. Mena Y. 10. Thalisson 17. Kiuan 9. Jefinho
Substitutes
22. Araujo Silva B. (G) 30. Arilson 14. Cedric 19. Daniel 25. Diogo Mourao 21. Emerson 12. Gonçalves V. 28. Indio R. 16. Marcelo Maia 17. Nonato 26. Thailor 20. Vitinho	14. Bruno Miranda 18. Camilo 7. Carlinhos 11. Felipe Sales 23. Jeffao 15. Joao Neto 13. Pablo Maldini 21. Paulo Ricardo 19. Rosa B. 33. Victor Brasil (G) 12. Victor Diotti

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Bismark ↓, Vitinho ↑,
53', Matheusinho ↓, Nonato ↑,
59', Joao Celeri ↓, Thailor ↑,
60', Jefinho ↓, Camilo ↑,
75', Guilherme Borges ↓, Diogo Mourao ↑,
75', Eliandro ↓, Cedric ↑,
80', Luan ↓, Rosa B. ↑,
81', Kiuan ↓, Carlinhos ↑,
88', Pedrinho ↓, Pablo Maldini ↑,
90+1', Pablo Maldini 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Floresta won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Floresta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Floresta could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Floresta won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 23:19. (average 1.4:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Floresta won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:14. (average 1.1:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Floresta EC
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
26.01.26	Fortaleza - Floresta	1:0 ✺
21.01.26	Floresta - Iguatu	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Maranguape - Floresta	0:3 ✺
10.01.26	Floresta - Ceará	0:1 ✺
07.01.26	Tirol - Floresta	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LTWLW
- Ferroviário Fortaleza
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
25.01.26	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Ceará	1:5 ✺
22.01.26	Quixadá - Ferroviário Fortaleza	1:2 ✺
16.01.26	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Horizonte	2:2 ✺
11.01.26	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
06.01.26	Maracanã - Ferroviário Fortaleza	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 LWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
29.01.25	Floresta - Ferroviário Fortaleza	3:3
Brazilian Copa Fares Lopes
07.12.24	Floresta - Ferroviário Fortaleza	0:3 penalties
04.12.24	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Floresta	0:2
21.11.24	Floresta - Ferroviário Fortaleza	2:2
Brazilian Serie C
28.05.24	Floresta - Ferroviário Fortaleza	1:2
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
20.01.24	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Floresta	1:3
Brazilian Serie C
26.06.22	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Floresta	0:2

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