Match Info

Challenge League - Round 11

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday


	Fgura United		Gudja United

	1	X	2
	1.36	4.55	6.5	Watch
	1.31	5.01	7.7	Watch
	1.36	4	7
	1.34	4.33	8.05
	1.37	4.25	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.77)	4.43 ↑ (3.6)	7.05 ↑ (3.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fgura United
66.9%

Draw
20.4%

Gudja United
12.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.1%

25.1%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

24%

22.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fgura United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fgura United's performance.

Gudja United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gudja United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fgura United than the current prediction. (-13.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fgura United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gudja United than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gudja United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Fgura United - Gudja United Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Gudja United (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, ⚽,
32', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Challenge League (Promotion Group: ) and 9 in the zone Challenge League (Relegation Group: )).

Fgura is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Gudja United has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Gudja United may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Fgura is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Fgura will win today's game, with odds of 1.76.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Fgura won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 2:2).

Including home match between the teams, Fgura won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fgura	2	1	1	0	5:1	4	4
15	Gudja	2	0	0	2	0:5	-5	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fgura United
Maltese FA Trophy
04.01.26	Fgura United - Santa Lucia	2:1 ✺
Maltese Challenge League
20.12.25	Żurrieq - Fgura United	1:4 ✺
14.12.25	Fgura United - Mtarfa	8:0 ✺
10.12.25	Fgura United - Balzan	1:2 ✺
30.11.25	Vittoriosa Stars - Fgura United	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWWLW
- Gudja United
Maltese FA Trophy
03.01.26	Paola Hibernians - Gudja United	3:1 ✺
Maltese Challenge League
20.12.25	Mtarfa - Gudja United	0:3 ✺
13.12.25	Gudja United - Żurrieq	1:0 ✺
09.12.25	Gudja United - Vittoriosa Stars	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Birżebbuġa St. Peters - Gudja United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Challenge League
22.02.25	Gudja United - Fgura United	2:3
24.11.24	Fgura United - Gudja United	1:2

Fgura United - Gudja United: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide