Match Info

Serie A Women - Round 12

Date: 2 February 2026, Monday

Location: Curva Fiesole - Viola Park (Bagno a Ripoli)

Referee: D'Eusanio F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	W-sport
Asia	W-Sport Asia
Belgium	W-sport
France	Molotov TV, W-Sport
Italy	DAZN Italia
Luxembourg	W-Sport
Malaysia	Canal+
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	W-Sport
Portugal	W-Sport
Turkey	W-Sport


	Fiorentina		Napoli

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.55	4.15
	1.76	3.93	4.1
	1.72	4.03	4.17	Watch
	1.67	3.4	4
	1.73	3.62	4.66	Watch
	1.73	4	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↑ (1.4)	3.76 ↓ (4.57)	4.15 ↓ (7.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fiorentina
53.4%

Draw
24.4%

Napoli
22.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.5%

20.4%

13.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.6%

19.5%

12.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fiorentina's form might have worsened.

Napoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Napoli's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+16.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fiorentina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Napoli, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Fiorentina - Napoli Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fiskerstrand C. (C) 20. Orsi B. 22. Van Der Zanden I. 85. Filangeri M. 16. Lombardi E. 44. Faerge E. 51. Omarsdottir I. 77. Curmark F. 15. Bredgaard S. 9. Janogy M. 4. Bonfantini A.	21. Thisgaard F. (G) 44. Pettenuzzo T. 16. Jusjong M. 32. Vergani B. 67. Giordano M. 17. Carcassi A. 23. Bellucci M. (C) 90. Langella G. 8. Kozak K. 10. Banusic M. 11. Floe C.
Substitutes
23. Bettineschi G. (G) 26. Cherubini M. 17. Eiriksdottir H. 3. Johansen O. 21. Severini E. 27. Tryggvadottir K. 11. Wijnants S. 2. Woldvik E.	7. Barker H. M. 1. Beretta B. (G) 24. D'Angelo A. 14. Faurskov L. 30. Hornschuch S. (G) 27. Kainulainen E. 12. Kjolholdt S. 77. Musumeci V. 13. Muth N. 19. Sciabica M. 5. Veletanlic E.
Coaches
Pinones-Arce P.	Sassarini D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
8', 0 - 1, Floe C. ⚽, Banusic M. (A),
13', Pettenuzzo T. 🟨,
19', 0 - 2, Banusic M. ⚽, Floe C. (A),
23', Faerge E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Curmark F. ↓, Severini E. ↑,
52', Banusic M. ↓, Kjolholdt S. ↑,
60', Filangeri M. ↓, Woldvik E. ↑,
61', Orsi B. ↓, Cherubini M. ↑,
61', Bellucci M. ↓, Muth N. ↑,
61', Langella G. ↓, Sciabica M. ↑,
62', Giordano M. ↓, Veletanlic E. ↑,
77', Lombardi E. ↓, Johansen O. ↑,
81', 1 - 2, Omarsdottir I. ⚽, Woldvik E. (A),
83', Carcassi A. ↓, Faurskov L. ↑,
84', Sciabica M. 🟨,
90+3', Bredgaard S. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 6 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Fiorentina is considered a favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:8. (average 1.6:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Fiorentina won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:2. (average 1.3:0.5).

Outrights of Italian Serie A Women for now

Fiorentina W: 4.99% Napoli W: 0.85%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Fiorentina W	2	1	0	1	2:2	0	3
11	Napoli W	2	0	0	2	2:5	-3	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fiorentina Women FC
Coppa Italia Women
29.01.26	Fiorentina - Milan	1:0 ✺
Italian Serie A Women
24.01.26	Lazio - Fiorentina	3:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Women
20.01.26	Milan - Fiorentina	1:1 ✺
Italian Serie A Women
17.01.26	Fiorentina - Genoa	1:1 ✺
Coppa Italia Women
21.12.25	Bologna - Fiorentina	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLTTW
- Napoli Femminile
Coppa Italia Women
29.01.26	Juventus - Napoli	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A Women
25.01.26	Sassuolo - Napoli	0:2 ✺
Coppa Italia Women
22.01.26	Napoli - Juventus	1:2 ✺
Italian Serie A Women
17.01.26	Napoli - Como	0:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Women
20.12.25	Napoli - Sassuolo	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A Women
04.10.25	Napoli - Fiorentina	1:0
16.11.24	Napoli - Fiorentina	0:0
30.08.24	Fiorentina - Napoli	1:0
13.01.24	Napoli - Fiorentina	2:4
08.10.23	Fiorentina - Napoli	2:0
06.02.22	Fiorentina - Napoli	0:2
12.09.21	Napoli - Fiorentina	1:0

Fiorentina - Napoli: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide