The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Floriana 42.7%
Draw 28.4%
Marsaxlokk 29%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
35.8%
29.8%
34.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
35.9%
29.7%
34.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Floriana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Floriana's performance.
Marsaxlokk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Marsaxlokk might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Floriana than the current prediction. (-6.8%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Floriana that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marsaxlokk than the current prediction. (+5.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Marsaxlokk could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Floriana - Marsaxlokk Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
23. Cioletti G. (G) 3. Beerman M. 16. Chapi 6. Drina A. 14. Kurtalic A. 11. Muric R. 88. N Dri A. C. 90. Odey S. 17. Spiteri O. (C) 10. Varela F. 21. Zammit Lonardelli C.
22. Mafoumbi C. (G) 27. Aguirre L. 8. Arias U. 10. Dodo 4. El Hasni O. 20. Garcia M. 9. Linden R. 25. Minala J. 6. Muscat N. (C) 5. Pepe E. 3. Weder
Substitutes
99. Attard D. 22. Gudelj T. 37. Jbira Y. 4. Kauan 13. Micallef A. (G) 2. Miceli D. 27. Newell Z. 20. Piscopo E. 5. Rodgers G. 86. Shchepetkin N. 12. Vella D.
14. Attard E. 24. Caruana L. 23. Caruana T. 1. Cassar A. (G) 11. Corbalan J. C. 15. Galea N. 16. Karamitsios G. 26. Maniscalco M. 28. Mihana R. 33. Simkus D. 17. Smajlagic S.
Coaches
Portela D.
Potenza V.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 3)
9', 0 - 1, Linden R. ⚽,
21', Muric R. (Penalty Awarded),
22', 1 - 1, Varela F. ⚽,
32', 1 - 2, Garcia M. ⚽,
37', 1 - 3, Arias U. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Odey S. ↓, Muric R. ↑,
53', Beerman M. ↓, Vella D. ↑,
53', N Dri A. C. ↓, Jbira Y. ↑,
57', Drina A. ↓, Kauan ↑,
58', 1 - 4, Minala J. (Penalty Awarded),
61', 2 - 4, Zammit Lonardelli C. ⚽,
65', Arias U. ↓, Simkus D. ↑,
71', Linden R. ↓, Smajlagic S. ↑,
71', Dodo ↓, Mihana R. ↑,
73', 🟨,
75', Jbira Y. 🟥,
78', Minala J. 🟨,
80', Muscat N. ↓, Caruana L. ↑,
80', Garcia M. ↓, Caruana T. ↑,
84', 2 - 5, Smajlagic S. ⚽,
Preview
One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League (First stage ~ Top 6: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League (First stage ~ Top 6: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Floriana won 4.
Now, both teams are in good form.
Marsaxlokk may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Floriana won 11 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 29:12. (average 1.9:0.8).
Including home matches between the teams, Floriana won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:7. (average 1.6:0.9).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
1
Floriana
6
4
1
1
16:7
9
13
3
Marsaxlokk
6
3
2
1
11:9
2
11
Last Results with these Odds
Floriana - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 35.83%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.
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Cioletti G. (G) 
Beerman M. 
Chapi 
Drina A. 
Muric R. 
N Dri A. C. 
Odey S. 
Mafoumbi C. (G) 
Dodo 
El Hasni O. 
Linden R. 
Minala J. 
Weder 
Jbira Y. 
Mihana R. 
Simkus D. 
Portela D. 
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