Match Info

BRAZIL: Carioca - Taca Guanabara - Round 7

Date: 2 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Gomes Stefano A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Canais Globo, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Usa	Fanatiz


	Fluminense		Boavista

	1	X	2
	1.28	5.5	10
	1.3	5	10	Watch
	1.24	5.54	13.61
	1.29	4.6	10
	1.26	5.45	10.9	Watch
	1.3	5	10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.28 ↓ (1.31)	5.18 ↑ (5.09)	10.75 ↑ (9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fluminense
73.2%

Draw
18.1%

Boavista
8.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.3%

18.4%

10.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.8%

15.4%

12.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Boavista has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (-13.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fluminense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boavista than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Fluminense - Boavista Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fabio (C) 2. Samuel Xavier 4. Ignacio 22. Freytes J. 6. Rene 5. Bernal F. 35. Hercules 37. Isaque 21. Arias J. 14. Cano G. 11. Keno	1. Diego Loureiro (G) 2. Vitor Ricardo 19. Gabriel Caran 4. Anderson Conceicao 6. Matheus Mascarenhas 22. Martha 14. Caetano 8. Ze Mateus 16. Rai 18. Ze Vitor 32. Marcos Paulo
Substitutes
17. Canobbio A. 40. Davi Schuindt 12. Fuentes G. 23. Guga 18. Lele 26. Manoel 16. Nonato 77. Paulo Baya 39. Pedro Rangel (G) 28. Riquelme Felipe 90. Serna K. 20. Victor Hugo	7. Abner Vinicius 13. Alyson 12. Andre Luiz (G) 23. Ben-Hur 11. Fellipe Resende 9. Gabriel Conceicao 25. Khawhan 29. Leandrinho 30. Matheus Alessandro 3. Sheldon 5. William Oliveira 26. Xandao
Coaches
Marcao	Zanardi C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Samuel Xavier 🟨,
39', Martha 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Isaque ↓, Riquelme Felipe ↑,
56', Vitor Ricardo 🟨,
59', 0 - 1, Marcos Paulo ⚽, Vitor Ricardo (A),
64', Ze Mateus 🟨,
67', Martha ↓, Leandrinho ↑,
67', Marcos Paulo ↓, Matheus Alessandro ↑,
67', Bernal F. ↓, Lele ↑,
67', Keno ↓, Canobbio A. ↑,
74', Cano G. ↓, Serna K. ↑,
74', Rene ↓, Fuentes G. ↑,
77', Caetano ↓, Alyson ↑,
77', Matheus Mascarenhas ↓, Sheldon ↑,
87', 1 - 1, Samuel Xavier ⚽, Fuentes G. (A),
90', Ze Vitor ↓, Gabriel Conceicao ↑,
90+3', Alyson 🟨,

Preview

Let's enjoy game between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Carioca (Taca Rio: Semi~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Fluminense won 1.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Fluminense could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Fluminense have a series of guest games.

In this match Fluminense is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Fluminense won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 21:8 (average 1.9:0.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Fluminense won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8:3 (average 2:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
29.01.25	Botafogo RJ - Fluminense	2:1 ✺
26.01.25	Madureira - Fluminense	0:0 ✺
23.01.25	Portuguesa RJ - Fluminense	1:3 ✺
18.01.25	Fluminense - Maricá	1:1 ✺
15.01.25	Volta Redonda - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LTWTL
- Boavista SC
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
30.01.25	Boavista - Madureira	0:0 ✺
27.01.25	Nova Iguaçu - Boavista	0:0 ✺
23.01.25	Boavista - Sampaio Corrêa FE	1:1 ✺
19.01.25	Boavista - Vasco da Gama	1:1 ✺
15.01.25	Maricá - Boavista	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
04.02.24	Boavista - Fluminense	2:2
26.01.23	Fluminense - Boavista	1:1
12.03.22	Boavista - Fluminense	0:0
23.03.21	Boavista - Fluminense	0:2
01.02.20	Fluminense - Boavista	0:1
14.03.19	Boavista - Fluminense	0:3
17.01.18	Boavista - Fluminense	3:1

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