Match Info

BRAZIL: Carioca - Taca Guanabara - Round 4

Date: 23 January 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Luso Brasileiro (Rio de Janeiro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Brasileirao Play, Canais Globo, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Portuguesa RJ		Fluminense

	1	X	2
	7.75	4.33	1.41
	10	3.75	1.42	Watch
	9.77	3.85	1.41
	8.79	4.09	1.41	Watch
	6.5	3.5	1.5
	9.17	4.12	1.39	Watch
	9.5	3.75	1.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.78 ↑ (3.4)	3.91 ↑ (3.25)	1.42 ↓ (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portuguesa RJ
10.6%

Draw
23.8%

Fluminense
65.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.9%

28.2%

44.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portuguesa RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Portuguesa RJ's form might have worsened.

Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+20.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Fluminense's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.1%	15.4%	61.5%

Portuguesa RJ - Fluminense Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Portuguesa RJ will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Fluminense will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fluminense: 35% – 88%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bruno (G) 14. Lucas Mota 5. Ian 4. Thomas Kayck 15. Kaike 17. Wellington Cezar 8. Joao Paulo 7. Anderson Rosa 10. Romarinho 11. Joaozinho 19. Lohan	1. Fabio (C) 2. Samuel Xavier 4. Ignacio 29. Thiago Santos 12. Fuentes G. 8. Martinelli 35. Hercules 45. Lima 90. Serna K. 14. Cano G. 11. Keno
Substitutes
23. Alexandre Azizi (G) 16. Elicley 22. Henrique Rocha 3. Iran 2. Joazi 18. Lucas Campos 27. Lucas Santos 6. Marcus Vinicius 9. Rafael Silva 12. Vinicius Machado (G) 21. Willian	5. Bernal F. 17. Canobbio A. 22. Freytes J. 23. Guga 37. Isaque 9. Kaua Elias 26. Manoel 16. Nonato 77. Paulo Baya 6. Rene 28. Riquelme Felipe 98. Vitor Eudes (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
11', 0 - 1, Keno ⚽, Serna K. (A),
19', Anderson Rosa 🟨,
23', Martinelli 🟨,
33', 0 - 2, Cano G. (Pen),
38', 1 - 2, Romarinho ⚽, Joaozinho (A),
42', Kaike 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Kaike ↓, Marcus Vinicius ↑,
59', 1 - 3, Cano G. ⚽,
61', Cano G. ↓, Kaua Elias ↑,
61', Keno ↓, Canobbio A. ↑,
62', Thomas Kayck 🟨,
65', Serna K. ↓, Riquelme Felipe ↑,
69', Thomas Kayck ↓, Iran ↑,
69', Joaozinho ↓, Lucas Santos ↑,
69', Lucas Mota ↓, Joazi ↑,
71', Lima ↓, Isaque ↑,
71', Martinelli ↓, Bernal F. ↑,
71', Romarinho ↓, Elicley ↑,
88', Isaque 🟨,
90+2', Wellington Cezar 🟨,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Carioca (Taca Guanabara ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 11).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Portuguesa RJ won 0.

Recent matches Fluminense is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Fluminense is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Portuguesa RJ won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 7:18 (average 0.7:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Portuguesa RJ won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:4 (average 0.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portuguesa RJ
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
19.01.25	Portuguesa RJ - Madureira	2:1 ✺
14.01.25	Botafogo RJ - Portuguesa RJ	2:0 ✺
11.01.25	Bangu - Portuguesa RJ	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Rio
28.08.24	Portuguesa RJ - Maricá	1:2 ✺
21.08.24	Maricá - Portuguesa RJ	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLWLT
- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
18.01.25	Fluminense - Maricá	1:1 ✺
15.01.25	Volta Redonda - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
12.01.25	Fluminense - Sampaio Corrêa FE	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
08.12.24	Palmeiras - Fluminense	0:1 ✺
05.12.24	Fluminense - Cuiabá	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 TLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
21.01.24	Fluminense - Portuguesa RJ	2:1
25.02.23	Fluminense - Portuguesa RJ	3:0
13.02.22	Fluminense - Portuguesa RJ	1:0
09.05.21	Fluminense - Portuguesa RJ	3:1
02.05.21	Portuguesa RJ - Fluminense	1:1
07.03.21	Fluminense - Portuguesa RJ	0:3
23.01.20	Fluminense - Portuguesa RJ	2:0

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