Match Info

Carioca - Taca Guanabara - Round 4

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Elcyr Resende de Mendonca (Rio de Janeiro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	SporTV


	Boavista		Vasco da Gama

	1	X	2
	4.05	3.35	1.85
	4.13	3.26	1.91
	4.16	3.31	1.9	Watch
	3.9	3	1.85
	4.14	3.18	1.84
	4.25	3.33	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.11 ↓ (4.34)	3.24 ↓ (3.44)	1.88 ↑ (1.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Boavista
22.4%

Draw
28.4%

Vasco da Gama
49.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.4%

27%

51.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Boavista has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Vasco da Gama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Boavista - Vasco da Gama Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Boavista will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Vasco will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Boavista (votes: 1 - 25%). Vasco (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Boavista (1.86) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Boavista (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Vasco (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lucas Maticoli (G) 2. Cesinha 3. Gabriel Caran 4. Guilherme Lacerda 6. Titto 23. Leandrinho 8. Emanuel Jesus 11. Fellipinho 10. Isael (C) 7. Bere 9. Brunao	13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 2. Rodriguez J. 4. Saldivia A. 30. Robert Renan 6. Lucas Piton (C) 3. Tche Tche 98. JP 25. Hugo Moura 29. Rojas J. 19. GB 11. Andres Gomez
Substitutes
13. Bruno Jesus 15. Fernando 14. Gabriel Richvicki 20. Gui Sales 21. Igor Franca 16. Kadu 22. Khawhan 18. Marcus Vinicius 12. Matheus (G) 17. Misael Xavier 5. Ryan Couto 19. Sandrinho	28. Adson 74. Andrey Fernandes 7. David 14. Guilherme Estrella 60. Joao Vitor 33. Lyncon 9. Matheus Franca 90. Minete D. 37. Pablo (G) 23. Thiago Mendes 12. Victor Luis 64. Walace Fernandes
Coaches
Gilson Kleina	Diniz F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45+3', 0 - 1, Rodriguez J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Lucas Piton ↓, Joao Vitor ↑,
46', Bere ↓, Sandrinho ↑,
47', JP 🟨,
60', JP ↓, Thiago Mendes ↑,
61', Sandrinho 🟨,
65', 0 - 2, Rodriguez J. ⚽,
69', 0 - 3, Andres Gomez ⚽,
70', Leandrinho ↓, Kadu ↑,
70', Guilherme Lacerda ↓, Bruno Jesus ↑,
72', Andres Gomez ↓, David ↑,
72', GB ↓, Guilherme Estrella ↑,
72', Cesinha ↓, Igor Franca ↑,
75', Tche Tche ↓, Adson ↑,
77', Fellipinho ↓, Khawhan ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Boavista won 0.

Vasco has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Vasco may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Vasco is seen as the favorite.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Boavista won 0 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 11:24. (average 0.8:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Boavista won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 0.7:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Vasco da Gama - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 51.6%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Boavista SC
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
22.01.26	Boavista - Portuguesa RJ	3:2 ✺
17.01.26	Boavista - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
14.01.26	Volta Redonda - Boavista	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Rio
13.08.25	Boavista - Cabofriense	1:2 ✺
30.07.25	Cabofriense - Boavista	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WWLLT
- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
21.01.26	Flamengo - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
18.01.26	Vasco da Gama - Nova Iguaçu	0:0 ✺
15.01.26	Vasco da Gama - Maricá	4:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.12.25	Vasco da Gama - Corinthians	1:2 ✺
17.12.25	Corinthians - Vasco da Gama	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
19.01.25	Boavista - Vasco da Gama	1:1
18.01.24	Vasco da Gama - Boavista	2:0
27.02.23	Vasco da Gama - Boavista	4:1
29.01.22	Vasco da Gama - Boavista	1:1
Copa do Brasil
09.06.21	Vasco da Gama - Boavista	1:1
01.06.21	Boavista - Vasco da Gama	0:1
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
18.04.21	Boavista - Vasco da Gama	2:2

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