Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 23 September 2025, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Valenzuela J. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	21:30	Disney+, ESPN
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	10:30	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia And Herzegovina	02:30	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	21:30	Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV, Claro TV+, Paramount+, SBT, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	03:30	Max Sport 4
Canada	20:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	21:30	Disney+
Colombia	19:30	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	02:30	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Greece	03:30	COSMOTE Sport 9
Indonesia	07:30	Mola TV
Israel	03:30	Sport 2
Italy	02:30	Como TV
Kosovo	02:30	Arena Premium 1
Malaysia	08:30	Mola
Mexico	18:30	Disney+
Netherlands	02:30	Canal+, ESPN 1
New Zealand	12:30	beIN Connect
Peru	19:30	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	02:30	Polsat Sport 2
Portugal	01:30	Sport TV1
Russia	03:30	Okko Sport
Serbia	02:30	Arena Premium 1
South America	—	ESPN South
Spain	02:30	LaLiga+
Turkey	03:30	S Sport, S Sport+
Uruguay	21:30	Disney+
Usa	20:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	20:30	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Fluminense		Lanús

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.3	6	Watch
	1.65	3.35	5.4	Watch
	1.68	3.41	6.34
				Watch
	1.71	3.38	5.81	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.59)	3.36 ↓ (3.87)	5.89 ↓ (6.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fluminense
56.1%

Draw
27.9%

Lanús
15.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

59.8%

24.5%

15.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.2%

26.7%

14.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Lanús has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fluminense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lanús than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	6.7%	13.3%

Fluminense - Lanús Predictions

Users Predictions: Fluminense will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fluminense will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fabio (G) 2. Samuel Xavier 3. Thiago Silva (C) 22. Freytes J. 6. Rene 8. Martinelli 35. Hercules 17. Canobbio A. 21. Acosta L. 90. Serna K. 9. Everaldo	26. Losada N. (G) 4. Perez G. 24. Izquierdoz C. (C) 13. Canale Dominguez J. 6. Marcich S. 39. Medina A. 30. Cardozo A. 36. Segovia A. 10. Marcelino Moreno 11. Salvio E. 19. Castillo R.
Substitutes
14. Cano G. 12. Fuentes G. 23. Guga 4. Ignacio 99. John Kennedy 11. Keno 18. Lezcano R. 45. Lima 94. Otavio 28. Riquelme Felipe 7. Soteldo Y. 98. Vitor Eudes (G)	7. Acosta L. 25. Aquino D. 9. Bou W. 14. Canelo A. 23. Carrera R. 21. Mendez A. 17. Morales L. (G) 3. Morgantini N. 2. Munoz E. 22. Quiroz T. 50. Sanchez F. 8. Watson F. N.
Coaches
Renato Gaucho	Pellegrino M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Canobbio A. ⚽, Acosta L. (A),
44', Thiago Silva 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Everaldo ↓, Cano G. ↑,
46', Hercules ↓, Otavio ↑,
48', Segovia A. 🟨,
56', Segovia A. ↓, Aquino D. ↑,
56', Castillo R. ↓, Bou W. ↑,
67', 1 - 1, Aquino D. ⚽, Marcelino Moreno (A),
71', Acosta L. ↓, John Kennedy ↑,
71', Serna K. ↓, Keno ↑,
77', Canobbio A. ↓, Riquelme Felipe ↑,
82', Salvio E. ↓, Morgantini N. ↑,
82', Marcelino Moreno ↓, Watson F. N. ↑,
90', Rene 🟨,
90+2', Perez G. ↓, Munoz E. ↑,
90+7', Freytes J. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg result: 0-1. 2nd leg.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Lanús may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Fluminense is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Fluminense won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Serie A
20.09.25	Vitória Salvador - Fluminense	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
16.09.25	Lanús - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
13.09.25	Fluminense - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
10.09.25	Fluminense - Bahia	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
31.08.25	Santos - Fluminense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLLWT
- CA Lanús
Argentinian Liga Profesional
19.09.25	Lanús - Platense	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
16.09.25	Lanús - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
12.09.25	Lanús - Independiente Rivadavia	1:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
08.09.25	Argentinos Juniors - Lanús	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
30.08.25	Vélez Sársfield - Lanús	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
16.09.25	Lanús - Fluminense	1:0

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