The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Santos 42.6%
Draw 29.5%
Fluminense 27.9%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
35.7%
30.3%
34%
Our Initial ML Estimation
37.5%
31.8%
32.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Santos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Santos's performance.
Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fluminense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santos than the current prediction. (-5.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Santos that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+4.5%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
57.1%
14.3%
28.6%
Santos - Fluminense Predictions
Users Predictions:
7 users predict this event. Santos will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Fluminense will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 18. Igor Vinicius 4. Lucas Verissimo 14. Luan Peres 22. Barreal A. 48. Gustavo Henrique 15. Willian Arao 49. Gabriel Bontempo 10. Neymar (C) 21. Moises 9. Gabriel Barbosa
1. Fabio (C) 23. Guga 3. Jemmes 22. Freytes J. 13. Guilherme Arana 35. Hercules 5. Bernal F. 11. Savarino J. 25. Alisson 90. Serna K. 19. Castillo R.
Substitutes
19. Diaz L. 1. Diogenes (G) 98. Frias A. 5. Joao Schmidt 12. Mayke 30. Miguelito 28. Oliva C. 38. Rafael Gonzaga 7. Robinho Jr. 32. Rollheiser B. 16. Thaciano 6. Ze Rafael
4. Ignacio 21. Igor Rabello 9. John Kennedy 46. Julio Fidelis 27. Marcelo Pitaluga (G) 29. Millan J. 94. Otavio 10. PH Ganso 6. Rene 28. Riquelme Felipe 2. Samuel Xavier 34. Wesley Nata
Coaches
Cuca
Zubeldia L.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
9', 1 - 0, Gabriel Barbosa ⚽,
20', Igor Vinicius 🟨,
24', 1 - 1, Savarino J. ⚽, Castillo R. (A),
25', Gustavo Henrique 🟨,
33', Gabriel Barbosa 🟨,
33', Bernal F. 🟨,
45+4', Alisson 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Moises ↓, Rafael Gonzaga ↑,
57', 2 - 1, Barreal A. ⚽, Gabriel Barbosa (A),
58', Alisson ↓, John Kennedy ↑,
60', 2 - 2, Castillo R. ⚽, Guga (A),
61', Barreal A. ↓, Diaz L. ↑,
65', Lucas Verissimo 🟨,
80', Bernal F. ↓, Otavio ↑,
80', Savarino J. ↓, Riquelme Felipe ↑,
81', Gustavo Henrique ↓, Rollheiser B. ↑,
86', 2 - 3, John Kennedy ⚽, Guga (A),
87', Castillo R. ↓, PH Ganso ↑,
87', Serna K. ↓, Rene ↑,
88', Luan Peres 🟨,
89', Gabriel Bontempo ↓, Thaciano ↑,
90+3', Otavio 🟨,
Preview
Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 15 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santos won 0.
Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
Fluminense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
There will not play in Santos: Escobar G.
(Yellow Cards)
Gabriel Menino
(Hamstring Injury)
Mayke
(Knee Injury)
Vinicius Lira
(Knee Injury)
There will not play in Fluminense: Acosta L.
(Injury)
Cano G.
(Inactive)
Canobbio A.
(Yellow Cards)
Martinelli
(Yellow Cards)
Matheus Reis
(Inactive)
Nonato
(Hamstring Injury)
There are questionable in Santos: Moises
(Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Santos won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 25:23. (average 1.3:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Santos won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:9. (average 1.5:0.9).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
3
Fluminense
29
14
9
6
48:36
12
51
8
Santos
29
11
9
9
45:43
2
42
Last Results with these Odds
Santos - the odds 2.59 are the expected chance of winning is 35.68%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.
Fluminense - the odds 2.72 are the expected chance of winning is 33.98%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.
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Gabriel Brazao (G) 
Barreal A. 
Bernal F. 
Savarino J. 
Serna K. 
Miguelito 
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