Match Info

Campionato Sammarinese - Round 5

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday


	Folgore		Fiorentino

	1	X	2
	1.78	3.4	3.8
	1.8	3.35	3.85
	1.86	3.19	3.92
	1.08	9.41	18.85	Watch
	1.78	3.42	4.12	Watch
	1.81	3.4	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↓ (1.83)	4.36 ↑ (3.53)	6.41 ↑ (3.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Folgore
60.6%

Draw
23.4%

Fiorentino
15.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.4%

25.7%

24.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.3%

25.2%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Folgore has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Folgore's performance.

Fiorentino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fiorentino might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Folgore than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Folgore that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentino than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fiorentino could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Folgore - Fiorentino Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Daidola G. ⚽, Garcia A. (A),
18', 2 - 0, Ura R. ⚽, Garcia A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', 3 - 0, Daidola G. ⚽, Garcia A. (A),
83', Fratini A. 🟥,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Campionato Sammarinese (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Campionato Sammarinese (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Folgore won 3.

Folgore is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Fiorentino has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Folgore is considered a favorite.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Folgore won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 17:8. (average 1.5:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Folgore won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Folgore Falciano Calcio
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
28.09.25	Murata - Folgore	0:2 ✺
San Marino Coppa Titano
24.09.25	Folgore - La Fiorita	0:0 ✺
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
21.09.25	Folgore - Faetano	2:0 ✺
12.09.25	Virtus - Folgore	2:1 ✺
30.08.25	Folgore - Cailungo	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WTWLW
- FC Fiorentino
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
27.09.25	Fiorentino - Domagnano	0:0 ✺
San Marino Coppa Titano
24.09.25	Fiorentino - Juvenes-Dogana	2:2 ✺
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
20.09.25	San Giovanni - Fiorentino	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Fiorentino - Pennarossa	2:0 ✺
29.08.25	Tre Penne - Fiorentino	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TTTWL

Latest Head to Head

San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
05.10.24	Fiorentino - Folgore	1:1
24.04.24	Folgore - Fiorentino	2:0
06.04.24	Folgore - Fiorentino	2:2
17.12.23	Fiorentino - Folgore	1:2
22.04.23	Folgore - Fiorentino	1:0
14.01.23	Fiorentino - Folgore	1:1
07.05.22	Fiorentino - Folgore	1:2

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