Match Info

Campionato Sammarinese - Round 17

Date: 21 January 2026, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


San-marino	San Marino RTV


	Folgore		Virtus

	1	X	2
	4.85	3.2	1.7	Watch
	4.95	3.39	1.7	Watch
	4.6	3	1.73
	4.9	3.28	1.69
	4.75	3.33	1.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.81 ↑ (3.51)	3.24 ↑ (3.06)	1.7 ↓ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Folgore
18.8%

Draw
27.9%

Virtus
53.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.7%

29.4%

45%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.4%

29.1%

45.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Folgore has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Folgore's form might have worsened.

Virtus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Virtus's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Folgore than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Folgore, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Virtus than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Virtus, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Folgore - Virtus Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Scappini S. ⚽, Sabato R. (A),
45', 1 - 1, De Lucia U. (Own goal),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
64', 1 - 2, Zenoni M. ⚽, Sabato R. (A),

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Campionato Sammarinese (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Folgore won 0.

Recent performances by Folgore have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Virtus is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Virtus may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Virtus is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Folgore won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 11:20. (average 0.8:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Folgore won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 0.7:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Folgore	4	4	0	0	10:1	9	12
3	Virtus	4	3	1	0	6:2	4	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Folgore Falciano Calcio
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
17.01.26	Cailungo - Folgore	0:1 ✺
20.12.25	San Marino Academy U22 - Folgore	0:3 ✺
14.12.25	Folgore - Juvenes-Dogana	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Cosmos - Folgore	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Folgore - Tre Penne	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WWTLL
- SS Virtus
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
18.01.26	La Fiorita - Virtus	1:1 ✺
San Marino Super Cup
23.12.25	Virtus - Tre Fiori	1:0 ✺
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
20.12.25	Virtus - Cailungo	6:0 ✺
13.12.25	Murata - Virtus	0:2 ✺
06.12.25	Virtus - Tre Penne	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
12.09.25	Virtus - Folgore	2:1
01.03.25	Folgore - Virtus	0:2
01.11.24	Virtus - Folgore	1:0
10.03.24	Virtus - Folgore	2:0
26.11.23	Folgore - Virtus	0:2
03.05.23	Folgore - Virtus	1:1
29.04.23	Virtus - Folgore	1:1

Upcoming Matches