Match Info

Campionato Sammarinese - Round 11

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday


	Folgore		Tre Penne

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.05	2.78
	2.84	3.09	2.33
	2.65	3.32	2.45	Watch
	3.15	3.36	2.21
	3	3	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↑ (2.54)	3.16 ↓ (3.3)	2.4 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Folgore
32.8%

Draw
29%

Tre Penne
38.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

27.6%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.4%

27.2%

37%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Folgore has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Tre Penne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Folgore than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tre Penne than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Folgore - Tre Penne Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', 0 - 1, Errico S. ⚽, Pieri R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
51', 0 - 2, Errico S. (Pen),
85', 0 - 3, Turchetta G. (Pen),
90+2', 1 - 3, Pancotti S. ⚽, Ura R. (A),

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Campionato Sammarinese (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Campionato Sammarinese (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Folgore won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Folgore may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Tre Penne has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Folgore won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 8:18. (average 0.7:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Folgore won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 1:9. (average 0.2:1.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Tre Penne - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 36.47%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Folgore Falciano Calcio
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
23.11.25	San Giovanni - Folgore	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	La Fiorita - Folgore	2:2 ✺
01.11.25	Folgore - AC Libertas	6:1 ✺
25.10.25	Folgore - Pennarossa	3:0 ✺
San Marino Coppa Titano
22.10.25	La Fiorita - Folgore	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 TTWWL
- Tre Penne
San Marino Coppa Titano
26.11.25	Tre Penne - Juvenes-Dogana	1:1 ✺
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
22.11.25	Tre Penne - Murata	2:0 ✺
08.11.25	Tre Penne - Domagnano	0:0 ✺
01.11.25	Juvenes-Dogana - Tre Penne	1:1 ✺
24.10.25	Tre Penne - Tre Fiori	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 TWTTT

Latest Head to Head

San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
16.03.25	Folgore - Tre Penne	1:1
San Marino Coppa Titano
11.12.24	Tre Penne - Folgore	3:2 ET
27.11.24	Folgore - Tre Penne	0:1
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
16.03.24	Tre Penne - Folgore	2:1
09.12.23	Folgore - Tre Penne	0:2
12.04.23	Folgore - Tre Penne	0:4
17.12.22	Tre Penne - Folgore	1:2

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